When to Stop a Clinical Trial Early for Benefit: Lessons Learned and Future Approaches

Early stopping of a clinical trial for evidence of benefit has been widely debated in the medical literature.1–13 This practice has important implications from many viewpoints: clinicians who practice evidence-based medicine; future patients to whom the results of research studies apply; patients who voluntarily agree to participate in clinical trials; and scientists, investigators, and regulators who strive to balance conducting scientifically rigorous studies with disseminating data that support therapeutic advances as quickly as is reasonable. During the 7th Global Cardiovascular Clinical Trialists Forum held in Paris, France, in December 2010, cardiovascular clinical trialists, biostatisticians, National Institutes of Health scientists, regulators, and pharmaceutical industry scientists met to discuss current issues related to cardiovascular clinical trials, including the topic of stopping a clinical trial early for benefit. The Eplerenone in Mild Patients Hospitalization and Survival Study in Heart Failure (EMPHASIS-HF) is a recent trial that was stopped early for benefit14 and was used as a stimulus for discussion. This report summarizes the results of the group’s discussion on the scientific, statistical, and practical issues regarding the topic of stopping a clinical trial early for benefit.

[1]  Michael Böhm,et al.  Ivabradine and outcomes in chronic heart failure (SHIFT): a randomised placebo-controlled study , 2010, The Lancet.

[2]  J. Oss,et al.  PROPHYLACTIC IMPLANTATION OF A DEFIBRILLATOR IN PATIENTS WITH MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION AND REDUCED EJECTION FRACTION , 2002 .

[3]  Data and Safety Monitoring , 2014 .

[4]  K. Dickstein,et al.  The data monitoring experience in the MOXCON trial. , 2004, European Heart Journal.

[5]  Ralph D'Agostino,et al.  Combination of isosorbide dinitrate and hydralazine in blacks with heart failure. , 2004, The New England journal of medicine.

[6]  K. Swedberg,et al.  Effects of enalapril on mortality in severe congestive heart failure: results of the Cooperative North Scandinavian Enalapril Survival Study (CONSENSUS). , 1988, The American journal of cardiology.

[7]  K. Schulz,et al.  Multiplicity in randomised trials II: subgroup and interim analyses , 2005, The Lancet.

[8]  Sydes,et al.  A proposed charter for clinical trial data monitoring committees: helping them to do their job well , 2005, The Lancet.

[9]  Bertram Pitt,et al.  Effect of losartan compared with captopril on mortality in patients with symptomatic heart failure: randomised trial—the Losartan Heart Failure Survival Study ELITE II , 2000, The Lancet.

[10]  S. Kaul,et al.  By Jove! What is a clinician to make of JUPITER? , 2010, Archives of internal medicine.

[11]  D. DeMets,et al.  Effect of carvedilol on survival in severe chronic heart failure. , 2001, The New England journal of medicine.

[12]  D. DeMets,et al.  A dose-dependent increase in mortality with vesnarinone among patients with severe heart failure. Vesnarinone Trial Investigators. , 1999, The New England journal of medicine.

[13]  CIBIS-II Investigators and Committees The Cardiac Insufficiency Bisoprolol Study II (CIBIS-II): a randomised trial , 1999, The Lancet.

[14]  A. Moss,et al.  Improved survival with an implanted defibrillator in patients with coronary disease at high risk for ventricular arrhythmia. Multicenter Automatic Defibrillator Implantation Trial Investigators. , 1996, The New England journal of medicine.

[15]  R. Collins,et al.  Prevention of cardiovascular events with an antihypertensive regimen of amlodipine adding perindopril as required versus atenolol adding bendroflumethiazide as required, in the Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial-Blood Pressure Lowering Arm (ASCOT-BPLA): a multicentre randomised controlled tri , 2005, The Lancet.

[16]  Bertram Pitt,et al.  Randomised trial of losartan versus captopril in patients over 65 with heart failure (Evaluation of Losartan in the Elderly Study, ELITE) , 1997, The Lancet.

[17]  Fach,et al.  Effect of metoprolol CR/XL in chronic heart failure: Metoprolol CR/XL Randomised Intervention Trial in-Congestive Heart Failure (MERIT-HF) , 1999, The Lancet.

[18]  B. Freidlin,et al.  Stopping or reporting early for positive results in randomized clinical trials: the National Cancer Institute Cooperative Group experience from 1990 to 2005. , 2009, Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology.

[19]  P. Ridker The JUPITER Trial: Results, Controversies, and Implications for Prevention , 2009, Circulation. Cardiovascular quality and outcomes.

[20]  J. McMurray,et al.  Eplerenone in patients with systolic heart failure and mild symptoms. , 2011, The New England journal of medicine.

[21]  P. Ridker,et al.  The JUPITER Trial: responding to the critics. , 2010, The American journal of cardiology.

[22]  P. Libby,et al.  Rosuvastatin to prevent vascular events in men and women with elevated C-reactive protein. , 2008, The New England journal of medicine.

[23]  N. Geller,et al.  When should data and safety monitoring committees share interim results in cardiovascular trials? , 2008, JAMA.

[24]  J. Whitehead,et al.  Stopping a trial early in oncology: for patients or for industry? , 2008, Annals of oncology : official journal of the European Society for Medical Oncology.

[25]  H. Doval,et al.  Randomised trial of low-dose amiodarone in severe congestive heart failure , 1994, The Lancet.

[26]  D. DeMets,et al.  A Dose-Dependent Increase in Mortality with Vesnarinone among Patients with Severe Heart Failure , 1998 .

[27]  B. Pitt,et al.  The effect of spironolactone on morbidity and mortality in patients with severe heart failure. Randomized Aldactone Evaluation Study Investigators. , 1999, The New England journal of medicine.

[28]  Stuart J Pocock,et al.  Current controversies in data monitoring for clinical trials , 2006, Clinical trials.

[29]  Gordon H Guyatt,et al.  Randomized trials stopped early for benefit: a systematic review. , 2005, JAMA.

[30]  D. Rennie,et al.  Stopping medical research to save money: a broken pact with researchers and patients. , 2003, JAMA.

[31]  S. Pocock When (not) to stop a clinical trial for benefit. , 2005, JAMA.

[32]  J. Cohn,et al.  The effect of carvedilol on morbidity and mortality in patients with chronic heart failure. U.S. Carvedilol Heart Failure Study Group. , 1996, The New England journal of medicine.

[33]  G. Guyatt,et al.  Stopping randomized trials early for benefit and estimation of treatment effects: systematic review and meta-regression analysis. , 2010, JAMA.

[34]  J. López-Sendón,et al.  The EPHESUS Trial: Eplerenone in Patients with Heart Failure Due to Systolic Dysfunction Complicating Acute Myocardial Infarction , 2004, Cardiovascular Drugs and Therapy.

[35]  D. DeMets,et al.  Cardiac-resynchronization therapy with or without an implantable defibrillator in advanced chronic heart failure. , 2004, The New England journal of medicine.

[36]  Wojciech Zareba,et al.  Cardiac-resynchronization therapy for the prevention of heart-failure events. , 2009, The New England journal of medicine.

[37]  S. Pocock,et al.  The data monitoring experience in the Candesartan in Heart Failure Assessment of Reduction in Mortality and morbidity (CHARM) program. , 2005, American heart journal.

[38]  Boris Freidlin,et al.  Bias and trials stopped early for benefit. , 2010, JAMA.

[39]  M. Pfeffer,et al.  Effects of candesartan on mortality and morbidity in patients with chronic heart failure: the CHARM-Overall programme , 2003, The Lancet.

[40]  G. Guyatt,et al.  Ethical Issues in Stopping Randomized Trials Early Because of Apparent Benefit , 2007, Annals of Internal Medicine.

[41]  P C Deedwania,et al.  Amiodarone in patients with congestive heart failure and asymptomatic ventricular arrhythmia. Survival Trial of Antiarrhythmic Therapy in Congestive Heart Failure. , 1995, The New England journal of medicine.

[42]  S. Pocock,et al.  Trials stopped early: too good to be true? , 1999, The Lancet.

[43]  R. Ferrari,et al.  Ivabradine for patients with stable coronary artery disease and left-ventricular systolic dysfunction (BEAUTIFUL): a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial , 2008, The Lancet.