Viewing forests through the lens of complex systems science

Complex systems science provides a transdisciplinary framework to study systems characterized by (1) heterogeneity, (2) hierarchy, (3) self-organization, (4) openness, (5) adaptation, (6) memory, (7) non-linearity, and (8) uncertainty. Complex systems thinking has inspired both theory and applied strategies for improving ecosystem resilience and adaptability, but applications in forest ecology and management are just beginning to emerge. We review the properties of complex systems using four well-studied forest biomes (temperate, boreal, tropical and Mediterranean) as examples. The lens of complex systems science yields insights into facets of forest structure and dynamics that facilitate comparisons among ecosystems. These biomes share the main properties of complex systems but differ in specific ecological properties, disturbance regimes, and human uses. We show how this approach can help forest scientists and managers to conceptualize forests as integrated social-ecological systems and provide concrete examples of how to manage forests as complex adaptive systems.

[1]  T. Schoener The Newest Synthesis: Understanding the Interplay of Evolutionary and Ecological Dynamics , 2011, Science.

[2]  C. Slaughter,et al.  Ecological Considerations for the Sustainable Management of the North American Boreal Forests , 1997 .

[3]  D. Lindenmayer,et al.  Global Decline in Large Old Trees , 2012, Science.

[4]  K. Martin,et al.  NEST SITES AND NEST WEBS FOR CAVITY-NESTING COMMUNITIES IN INTERIOR BRITISH COLUMBIA, CANADA: NEST CHARACTERISTICS AND NICHE PARTITIONING , 2004 .

[5]  Neo D. Martinez,et al.  Food-web structure and network theory: The role of connectance and size , 2002, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[6]  Lael Parrott,et al.  Future landscapes: managing within complexity , 2012 .

[7]  J. David Neelin,et al.  Critical phenomena in atmospheric precipitation , 2006 .

[8]  J. Mascaro,et al.  Novel forests maintain ecosystem processes after the decline of native tree species , 2012 .

[9]  Andrew Fall,et al.  Insight, part of a Special Feature on Crossing Scales and Disciplines to Achieve Forest Sustainability A Toolkit Modeling Approach for Sustainable Forest Management Planning: Achieving Balance between Science and Local Needs , 2007 .

[10]  K. Puettmann,et al.  Managing for adaptive capacity: thinning improves food availability for wildlife and insect pollinators under climate change conditions , 2013 .

[11]  Takehiro Sasaki,et al.  Response diversity determines the resilience of ecosystems to environmental change , 2013, Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society.

[12]  Lael Parrott,et al.  An introduction to complexity science , 2013 .

[13]  Bernd Blasius,et al.  Complex dynamics and phase synchronization in spatially extended ecological systems , 1999, Nature.

[14]  J. Bulkan,et al.  Legitimacy of Public Domain Forest Taxation, and Combatting Corruption in Forestry , 2010 .

[15]  Charles D. Canham,et al.  Increased tree carbon storage in response to nitrogen deposition in the US , 2010 .

[16]  Peter Vogt,et al.  Key structural forest connectors can be identified by combining landscape spatial pattern and network analyses. , 2011 .

[17]  Melanie D. Jones,et al.  Carbon and Nutrient Fluxes Within and Between Mycorrhizal Plants , 2003 .

[18]  Klaus J. Puettmann,et al.  A Critique of Silviculture: Managing for Complexity , 2008 .

[19]  Erkki Korpimäki,et al.  Population oscillations of boreal rodents: regulation by mustelid predators leads to chaos , 1993, Nature.

[20]  P. Lasserre,et al.  A Real Option Approach to the Protection of a Habitat Dependent Endangered Species , 2008 .

[21]  Brian Dennis,et al.  Chaotic Dynamics in an Insect Population , 1997, Science.

[22]  C. Messier,et al.  A new silvicultural approach to the management of uneven-aged Northern hardwoods: frequent low-intensity harvesting , 2014 .

[23]  Mercedes Pascual,et al.  Understanding Shifts in Wildfire Regimes as Emergent Threshold Phenomena , 2011, The American Naturalist.

[24]  D. A. Perry,et al.  Self-organizing systems across scales. , 1995, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[25]  S. Levin Self-organization and the Emergence of Complexity in Ecological Systems , 2005 .

[26]  F. Berkes,et al.  Exploring some of the myths of land use change: Can rural to urban migration drive declines in biodiversity? , 2011 .

[27]  Jon Norberg,et al.  Resilience Management in Social-ecological Systems: a Working Hypothesis for a Participatory Approach , 2002 .

[28]  A. Rodrigo,et al.  Direct regeneration is not the only response of mediterranean forests to large fires , 2004 .

[29]  L. Maclauchlan,et al.  Influence of past forestry practices on western spruce budworm defoliation and associated impacts in southern British Columbia , 2009 .

[30]  Richard J. Hobbs,et al.  Frontiers inEcology and the Environment Management of novel ecosystems : are novel approaches required ? , 2008 .

[31]  S. Levin Ecosystems and the Biosphere as Complex Adaptive Systems , 1998, Ecosystems.

[32]  R. Chazdon Tropical forest recovery: legacies of human impact and natural disturbances , 2003 .

[33]  C. Messier,et al.  Managing Forests as Complex Adaptive Systems , 2013 .

[34]  J. Hicke,et al.  Cross-scale Drivers of Natural Disturbances Prone to Anthropogenic Amplification: The Dynamics of Bark Beetle Eruptions , 2008 .

[35]  KuuluvainenTimo,et al.  Natural disturbance emulation in boreal forest ecosystem management — theories, strategies, and a comparison with conventional even-aged management11This article is one of a selection of papers from the 7th International Conference on Disturbance Dynamics in Boreal Forests. , 2012 .

[36]  S. Simard,et al.  Effects of soil trenching on occurrence of ectomycorrhizas on Pseudotsuga menziesii seedlings grown in mature forests of Betula papyrifera and Pseudotsuga menziesii , 1997 .

[37]  Lael Parrott,et al.  Network Theory in the Assessment of the Sustainability of Social–Ecological Systems , 2012 .

[38]  M. Newman Resource Letter CS-1: Complex Systems , 2011 .

[39]  Elinor Ostrom,et al.  Complexity of Coupled Human and Natural Systems , 2007, Science.

[40]  L. Tacconi,et al.  Illegal Logging: Law Enforcement, Livelihoods and the Timber Trade , 2007 .

[41]  Gonzalo Jiménez-Moreno,et al.  Postglacial history of alpine vegetation, fire, and climate from Laguna de Río Seco, Sierra Nevada, southern Spain , 2011 .

[42]  S. Levin The problem of pattern and scale in ecology , 1992 .

[43]  Steven H. Strogatz,et al.  Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos: With Applications to Physics, Biology, Chemistry, and Engineering , 1994 .

[44]  J. R. González-Olabarria,et al.  Valuing acorn dispersal and resprouting capacity ecological functions to ensure Mediterranean forest resilience after fire , 2011, European Journal of Forest Research.

[45]  Hugo Asselin,et al.  Emulating boreal forest disturbance dynamics: Can we maintain timber supply, aboriginal land use, and woodland caribou habitat? , 2013 .

[46]  C. S. Holling,et al.  Ecological Resilience, Biodiversity, and Scale , 1998, Ecosystems.

[47]  J. Blondel The ‘Design’ of Mediterranean Landscapes: A Millennial Story of Humans and Ecological Systems during the Historic Period , 2006 .

[48]  Nassim Nicholas Taleb,et al.  The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable , 2007 .

[49]  N. Ferguson,et al.  Planning for smallpox outbreaks , 2003, Nature.

[50]  Daniel M. Durall,et al.  Net transfer of carbon between ectomycorrhizal tree species in the field , 1997, Nature.

[51]  HERBERT A. SIMON,et al.  The Architecture of Complexity , 1991 .

[52]  R. Durrett,et al.  The Importance of Being Discrete (and Spatial) , 1994 .

[53]  Christian Messier,et al.  Use of a spatially explicit individual-tree model (SORTIE/BC) to explore the implications of patchiness in structurally complex forests , 2003 .

[54]  B. Potts,et al.  A framework for community and ecosystem genetics: from genes to ecosystems , 2006, Nature Reviews Genetics.

[55]  B. Duval,et al.  Altered dynamics of forest recovery under a changing climate , 2013, Global change biology.

[56]  John M. Halley,et al.  The long-term temporal variability and spectral colour of animal populations , 2002 .

[57]  B. Goodwin,et al.  Signs Of Life: How Complexity Pervades Biology , 2000 .

[58]  A. Shvidenko,et al.  Predicting global change effects on forest biomass and composition in south-central Siberia. , 2010, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[59]  O P Judson,et al.  The rise of the individual-based model in ecology. , 1994, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[60]  Henrik Meilby,et al.  A review of decision-making approaches to handle uncertainty and risk in adaptive forest management under climate change , 2011, Annals of Forest Science.

[61]  Simon A. Levin,et al.  Fragile Dominion: Complexity and the Commons , 1999 .

[62]  A. Arsenault,et al.  Multicentury history of western spruce budworm outbreaks in interior Douglas-fir forests near Kamloops, British Columbia , 2006 .

[63]  John M. Anderies,et al.  Toward a network perspective of the study of resilience in social-ecological systems , 2006 .

[64]  Melanie Mitchell,et al.  Complexity - A Guided Tour , 2009 .

[65]  Bai-Lian Li,et al.  Why is the holistic approach becoming so important in landscape ecology , 2000 .

[66]  Campbell O. Webb,et al.  SEEDLING DENSITY DEPENDENCE PROMOTES COEXISTENCE OF BORNEAN RAIN FOREST TREES , 1999 .

[67]  Lael Parrott,et al.  Measuring ecological complexity , 2010 .

[68]  L. Stone,et al.  CHAOS, CYCLES AND SPATIOTEMPORAL DYNAMICS IN PLANT ECOLOGY , 1996 .

[69]  D. Janzen Herbivores and the Number of Tree Species in Tropical Forests , 1970, The American Naturalist.

[70]  J. Franklin Biological Legacies: A Critical Management Concept from Mount St. Helens , 1990 .

[71]  R. T. Belote,et al.  Latent resilience in ponderosa pine forest: effects of resumed frequent fire. , 2013, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[72]  Lael Parrott,et al.  Synthesis, part of a Special Feature on Applying Landscape Science to Natural Resource Management Agents, Individuals, and Networks: Modeling Methods to Inform Natural Resource Management in Regional Landscapes , 2012 .

[73]  F. Stuart Chapin,et al.  Fire, climate change, and forest resilience in interior Alaska. , 2010 .

[74]  Y. Bergeron SPECIES AND STAND DYNAMICS IN THE MIXED WOODS OF QUEBEC'S SOUTHERN BOREAL FOREST , 2000 .

[75]  S. Pollock,et al.  Fluctuations in density of an outbreak species drive diversity cascades in food webs , 2007, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[76]  David Salt,et al.  Resilience Thinking : Sustaining Ecosystems and People in a Changing World , 2017 .

[77]  K. David Coates,et al.  Are biotic disturbance agents challenging basic tenets of growth and yield and sustainable forest management , 2013 .

[78]  M. Schreckenberg Modeling Complex Systems , 2004 .

[79]  K. Briffa Annual climate variability in the Holocene: interpreting the message of ancient trees , 2000 .

[80]  B. Nelson Natural forest disturbance and change in the Brazilian Amazon , 1994 .

[81]  Andrew Fall,et al.  Patch-based graphs of landscape connectivity: A guide to construction, analysis and application for conservation , 2011 .

[82]  C. Allen,et al.  ECOLOGICAL RESTORATION OF SOUTHWESTERN PONDEROSA PINE ECOSYSTEMS: A BROAD PERSPECTIVE , 2002 .

[83]  R. Nasi,et al.  Legal vs. certified timber: Preliminary impacts of forest certification in Cameroon , 2011 .

[84]  Graeme S. Cumming,et al.  Change and Identity in Complex Systems , 2005 .

[85]  K. Puettmann Silvicultural Challenges and Options in the Context of Global Change: “Simple” Fixes and Opportunities for New Management Approaches , 2011 .

[86]  Garry D. Peterson,et al.  Response diversity, ecosystem change, and resilience , 2003 .

[87]  L. Fahrig Effects of Habitat Fragmentation on Biodiversity , 2003 .

[88]  W. Bond,et al.  Fire as a global 'herbivore': the ecology and evolution of flammable ecosystems. , 2005, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[89]  D. Green,et al.  Interactions matter—complexity in landscapes and ecosystems , 2005 .

[90]  R. May,et al.  Systemic risk in banking ecosystems , 2011, Nature.

[91]  S. Carpenter,et al.  Anticipating Critical Transitions , 2012, Science.

[92]  L. Gustafsson,et al.  Retention Forestry to Maintain Multifunctional Forests: A World Perspective , 2012 .

[93]  S. Haeussler Rethinking biogeoclimatic ecosystem classification for a changing world , 2011 .

[94]  D. Lindenmayer,et al.  Effects of logging on fire regimes in moist forests , 2009 .

[95]  I. Couzin,et al.  Effective leadership and decision-making in animal groups on the move , 2005, Nature.

[96]  Roger White,et al.  Cellular Automata and Fractal Urban Form: A Cellular Modelling Approach to the Evolution of Urban Land-Use Patterns , 1993 .

[97]  S. Levin,et al.  The Global Extent and Determinants of Savanna and Forest as Alternative Biome States , 2011, Science.

[98]  Thomas Elmqvist,et al.  Network analysis in conservation biogeography: challenges and opportunities , 2010 .

[99]  L. Brotóns,et al.  Functional homogenization of bird communities along habitat gradients: accounting for niche multidimensionality , 2010 .

[100]  Uta Berger,et al.  Pattern-Oriented Modeling of Agent-Based Complex Systems: Lessons from Ecology , 2005, Science.

[101]  P. Anttila,et al.  Forests and bioenergy production. , 2010 .

[102]  M. Rietkerk,et al.  Spatial vegetation patterns and imminent desertification in Mediterranean arid ecosystems , 2007, Nature.

[103]  A. Ares,et al.  Understory abundance, species diversity and functional attribute response to thinning in coniferous stands , 2010 .

[104]  C. Jordan,et al.  Tropical Moist Forest Silviculture and Management: A History of Success and Failure , 1998 .

[105]  Mark C. Drever,et al.  Woodpeckers as reliable indicators of bird richness, forest health and harvest , 2008 .

[106]  Albert-László Barabási,et al.  Scale-Free Networks: A Decade and Beyond , 2009, Science.

[107]  C. S. Holling,et al.  Panarchy Understanding Transformations in Human and Natural Systems , 2002 .

[108]  T. Elmqvist,et al.  Effects of Tropical Cyclonic Storms on Flying Fox Populations on the South Pacific Islands of Samoa , 1996 .

[109]  Lael Parrott,et al.  Hybrid modelling of complex ecological systems for decision support: Recent successes and future perspectives , 2011, Ecol. Informatics.

[110]  Timo Kuuluvainen,et al.  Natural disturbance emulation in boreal forest ecosystem management — theories, strategies, and a comparison with conventional even-aged , 2012 .

[111]  K. Puettmann,et al.  Managing for adaptive capacity : thinning improves food availability for wildlife and insect pollinators under climate change conditions , 2013 .

[112]  Stephen R. Carpenter,et al.  Scenario Planning: a Tool for Conservation in an Uncertain World , 2003, Conservation Biology.

[113]  S. Strogatz Exploring complex networks , 2001, Nature.

[114]  Carl J. Walters,et al.  Adaptive Management of Renewable Resources , 1986 .

[115]  Robert J Lempert,et al.  A new decision sciences for complex systems , 2002, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[116]  D. Richardson,et al.  Novel ecosystems: theoretical and management aspects of the new ecological world order , 2006 .

[117]  Madhur Anand,et al.  Ecological Systems as Complex Systems: Challenges for an Emerging Science , 2010 .

[118]  Patrick C Phillips,et al.  Network thinking in ecology and evolution. , 2005, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[119]  P. Burton,et al.  The value of managing for biodiversity , 1992 .

[120]  Axel Don,et al.  Exploring the functional significance of forest diversity: A new long-term experiment with temperate tree species (BIOTREE) , 2007 .

[121]  Stephen P Hubbell,et al.  Pervasive canopy dynamics produce short-term stability in a tropical rain forest landscape. , 2009, Ecology letters.