Estimating the effects of spatial variability of infiltration on the output of a distributed runoff and soil erosion model using Monte Carlo methods

Monte Carlo procedures were used to evaluate the effects of spatial variations in the values of the infiltration parameter on the results of the ANSWERS distributed runoff and erosion model. Simulation results obtained were compared with measured values. Field infiltration measurements indicated spatial correlation at much smaller distances than the size of an element. Therefore, at first only the error of the mean had to be taken into consideration for block infiltration rates. Consequently, not only single hydrographs were produced, but also error bands. Secondly, nine other hypothetical spatial correlation structures were also evaluated using Monte Carlo methods. in particular at low nugget variances, increasing spatial correlation of infiltration resulted in increasing coefficients of variation in model outputs. In general, rainstorms with low rainfall intensities were more difficult to simulate accurately than extreme events with high rainfall intensities. This is explained by the greater influence of the infiltration uncertainties at low rainfall intensities.

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