A Model Based on a Fuzzy Petri Net for Scenario Evolution of Unconventional Emergencies

Improving the response precision of unconventional-emergency management has been difficult. As a new type of decision-making model, “scenario–response” can help solve this problem. From the perspective of scenario evolution, this research designed the system structure of event scenario evolution as a hierarchical network structure of hazard factors, key hazard-affected bodies, and derivative events. In addition, a model for scenario evolution based on a fuzzy Petri net was constructed. Taking as an example an earthquake scenario evolution based on a fuzzy Petri net. A population \( \left( P \right) \) from the key hazard-affected objects was selected as the sample object, and the scenario evolution path of \( P \) by constructing a reasoning tree based on the fuzzy reasoning algorithm can be obtained to solve the response sequence of \( P \). The feasibility of this model was verified by the example of an earthquake.

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