Gutenberg–Richter b-value determination and large-magnitudes sampling

Aki’s maximum likelihood method of Gutenberg–Richter b-value estimation is based on the premise that magnitudes above a given threshold are distributed exponentially and presupposes that sampling is adequate for all these magnitudes; clearly, sampling will not be adequate for magnitudes having average recurrence times longer than the observation time. Thus, for any given sample, there is a higher-magnitude completeness threshold. The importance of considering this higher-magnitude threshold is discussed, the effect of incomplete large-magnitude sampling is evaluated, and a method is given for correcting the observations.

[1]  H. V. Satyanarayana,et al.  Temporal variation of b value associated with M ∼4 earthquakes in the reservoir-triggered seismic environment of the Koyna–Warna region, Western India , 2012, Journal of Seismology.

[2]  Stefan Wiemer,et al.  Anomalously high b-values in the South Flank of Kilauea volcano, Hawaii: evidence for the distribution of magma below Kilauea's East rift zone , 2001 .

[3]  O. P. Sahu,et al.  The b value before the 6th August, 1988 India-Myanmar Border Region Earthquake—a case study , 1994 .

[4]  D. Amorèse Applying a Change-Point Detection Method on Frequency-Magnitude Distributions , 2007 .

[5]  Temporal variations of the earthquake data in the catalogue of seismicity of new zealand , 2005 .

[6]  D. Sornette Dragon-Kings, Black Swans and the Prediction of Crises , 2009, 0907.4290.

[7]  Danijel Schorlemmer,et al.  Probability of Detecting an Earthquake , 2008 .

[8]  Keiiti Aki,et al.  A Probabilistic Synthesis of Precursory Phenomena , 2013 .

[9]  Andrzej Kijko,et al.  Estimation of the Maximum Earthquake Magnitude, mmax , 2004 .

[10]  S. Wiemer,et al.  Randomness of megathrust earthquakes implied by rapid stress recovery after the Japan earthquake , 2015 .

[11]  F. Mulargia,et al.  Confidence intervals of b values for grouped magnitudes , 1987, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.

[12]  Stefan Wiemer,et al.  Mapping active magma chambers by b values beneath the off‐Ito volcano, Japan , 1997 .

[13]  M. Wyss Towards a Physical Understanding of the Earthquake Frequency Distribution , 1973 .

[14]  M. Wyss,et al.  Variations in earthquake-size distribution across different stress regimes , 2005, Nature.

[15]  K. Aki 17. Maximum Likelihood Estimate of b in the Formula logN=a-bM and its Confidence Limits , 1965 .

[16]  Cinna Lomnitz,et al.  A modified form of the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency relation , 1979 .

[17]  F. R. Zúñiga,et al.  Gutenberg-Richter b-value maximum likelihood estimation and sample size , 2016, Journal of Seismology.

[18]  Bernice Bender,et al.  Maximum likelihood estimation of b values for magnitude grouped data , 1983 .

[19]  J. B. Berrill,et al.  Maximum entropy and the magnitude distribution , 1980 .

[20]  Andrzej Kijko,et al.  Estimation of earthquake hazard parameters from incomplete data files. Part II. Incorporation of magnitude heterogeneity , 1992 .

[21]  Warwick D. Smith The b-value as an earthquake precursor , 1981, Nature.

[22]  Y. Ogata,et al.  Analysis of temporal and spatial heterogeneity of magnitude frequency distribution inferred from earthquake catalogues , 1993 .

[23]  Paul A. Rydelek,et al.  Testing the completeness of earthquake catalogues and the hypothesis of self-similarity , 1989, Nature.

[24]  A. Kijko,et al.  Statistical tools for maximum possible earthquake magnitude estimation , 2011 .

[25]  C. Scholz The frequency-magnitude relation of microfracturing in rock and its relation to earthquakes , 1968 .

[26]  Stefan Wiemer,et al.  Variations in the frequency‐magnitude distribution with depth in two volcanic areas: Mount St. Helens, Washington, and Mt. Spurr, Alaska , 1997 .

[27]  B. Gutenberg,et al.  Frequency of Earthquakes in California , 1944, Nature.

[28]  M. Wyss,et al.  Minimum Magnitude of Completeness in Earthquake Catalogs: Examples from Alaska, the Western United States, and Japan , 2000 .

[29]  B. Enescu,et al.  Some premonitory phenomena of the 1995 Hyogo-Ken Nanbu (Kobe) earthquake: seismicity, b-value and fractal dimension , 2001 .

[30]  Stephen S. Gao,et al.  Temporal variation of seismic b‐values beneath northeastern Japan island arc , 2002 .

[31]  L. Arcangelis,et al.  Variability of the b value in the Gutenberg–Richter distribution , 2014 .

[32]  T. Utsu A method for determining the value of b in a formula log n=a-bM showing the magnitude frequency relation for earthquakes , 1965 .

[33]  O. Kulhánek,et al.  Spatial and temporal b value anomalies preceding the devastating off coast of NW Sumatra earthquake of December 26, 2004 , 2005 .

[34]  Correcting the Gutenberg–Richter b-value for effects of rounding and noise , 2015 .

[35]  F. R. Zúñiga,et al.  Converting Magnitudes Based on the Temporal Stability of a‐ and b‐Values in the Gutenberg–Richter Law , 2012 .

[36]  S. Wiemer,et al.  Assessing the Quality of Earthquake Catalogues: Estimating the Magnitude of Completeness and Its Uncertainty , 2005 .

[37]  O. Kulhánek,et al.  Spatial variations of b-values in the subduction zone of Central America , 2003 .