Combining Climate, Crash, and Highway Data for Improved Ranking of Speed and Winter-Weather Related Crash Locations in Oregon

In recent years, the techniques for screening transportation networks to identify high crash locations have become more sophisticated with significant data requirements. This paper presents the results of an empirical analysis of screening and ranking for weather related crashes on rural 1.6 km (1 mi) highway sections of Oregon highways. The analysis includes data generated with the extensive use of spatial techniques and incorporates climate data to enhance environmental considerations. The paper compares the results of five ranking methods: Critical rate (by functional class), critical rate (by functional class and climate zone), potential for crash reduction, expected frequency (adjusted by empirical-bayes), and frequency. For the empirical-bayes methods, safety performance functions were generated using negative binomial regression techniques. The 20 top 1.6 km (1 mi) sections were identified for each method and compared. The results reveal that the frequency and expected frequency methods identified the most sites in common, followed by the rate-based methods. The potential for the crash reduction method identified the most unique ranked list. The results highlight the differences in ranking methods.

[1]  Ezra Hauer,et al.  Observational Before-After Studies in Road Safety , 1997 .

[2]  David Hui,et al.  Low-temperature and freeze-thaw durability of thick composites , 1996 .

[3]  J. T. Wulu,et al.  Regression analysis of count data , 2002 .

[4]  Fred L. Mannering,et al.  Negative binomial analysis of intersection accident frequencies , 1996 .

[5]  Ezra Hauer,et al.  Estimation of safety at signalized intersections , 1988 .

[6]  Lily Elefteriadou,et al.  Safety Effectiveness of Intersection Left- and Right-Turn Lanes , 2003 .

[7]  Ezra Hauer,et al.  Screening the Road Network for Sites with Promise , 2002 .

[8]  H Lum,et al.  Modeling vehicle accidents and highway geometric design relationships. , 1993, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[9]  Shauna L. Hallmark,et al.  EVALUATION OF THE IOWA DOT'S SAFETY IMPROVEMENT CANDIDATE LIST PROCESS , 2002 .

[10]  Dominique Lord,et al.  Poisson, Poisson-gamma and zero-inflated regression models of motor vehicle crashes: balancing statistical fit and theory. , 2005, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[11]  James G Strathman,et al.  Analysis of design attributes and crashes on the Oregon highway system. , 2001, Applied health economics and health policy.

[12]  Joseph E. Hummer,et al.  Manual of transportation engineering studies , 1994 .

[13]  Robert L. Bertini,et al.  Comparison of Identification and Ranking Methodologies for Speed-Related Crash Locations , 2006 .

[14]  Robert L. Bertini,et al.  Impacts and Issues Related to Proposed Changes in Oregon's Interstate Speed Limits, Final Report , 2004 .

[15]  Ezra Hauer Identification of Sites with Promise , 1996 .

[16]  Timothy C. Coburn,et al.  Statistical and Econometric Methods for Transportation Data Analysis , 2004, Technometrics.

[17]  Bhagwant Persaud,et al.  ACCIDENT PREDICTION MODELS FOR FREEWAYS , 1993 .

[18]  Ezra Hauer,et al.  Estimating Safety by the Empirical Bayes Method: A Tutorial , 2002 .

[19]  J. Bared,et al.  Accident Models for Two-Lane Rural Segments and Intersections , 1998 .

[20]  E. Hauer,et al.  ESTIMATION OF SAFETY AT SIGNALIZED INTERSECTIONS (WITH DISCUSSION AND CLOSURE) , 1988 .

[21]  F Mannering,et al.  Effect of roadway geometrics and environmental factors on rural freeway accident frequencies. , 1995, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[22]  Wen Cheng,et al.  Experimental evaluation of hotspot identification methods. , 2005, Accident; analysis and prevention.