Mortality and morbidity in gastro-oesophageal cancer surgery: initial results of ASCOT multicentre prospective cohort study

Abstract Objective To evaluate the effect of comorbidity and other risk factors on postoperative mortality and morbidity in patients undergoing major oesophageal and gastric surgery. Design Multicentre cohort study with data on postoperative mortality and morbidity in hospital. Data source and methods The ASCOT prospective database, comprising 2087 patients with newly diagnosed oesophageal and gastric cancer in 24 hospitals in England and Wales between 1 January 1999 and 31 December 2002. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to model the risk of death and postoperative complications. Results 955 patients underwent oesophagectomy or gastrectomy. Of these, 253 (27%) were graded ASA III or IV, and 187 (20%) had a high physiological POSSUM score (≥ 20). Operative mortality was 12% (111/955). Physiological POSSUM score, surgeon's assessment, type of operation, hospital case volume, and tumour stage independently predicted operative mortality. Medical complications were associated with higher physiological POSSUM scores and ASA grade, oesophagectomy or total gastrectomy, thoracotomy, and radical nodal dissection. Stage and additional organ resection predicted surgical (technical) complications. Conclusions Many patients undergoing surgery for gastro-oesophageal cancer have major comorbid disease, which strongly influences their risk of postoperative death. Technical complications do not seem to be influenced by preoperative factors but reflect the extent of surgery and perhaps surgical judgment. Detailed prospective multicentre cooperative audit, with appropriate risk adjustment, is fundamental in the evaluation of cancer care and must be properly resourced.