Abstract The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) has undertaken a program to assess the integrity of control rod drive mechanism nozzles in existing plants that are not immediately replacing their reactor pressure vessel heads. This paper summarizes some of the efforts undertaken on behalf of the USNRC for the development of circumferential crack-driving force solutions to be used in probabilistic determinations of the time from detectable leakage to failure. Detailed three-dimensional elastic–plastic finite element analyses of these nozzles were conducted to determine the effects of operating conditions, tube-to-head interference fit, tube yield strength, and nozzle-to-head angle on the crack-driving force. Three major observations to date are: • Conducting simple tube-only analyses can severely overpredict the actual crack-driving force in the control rod drive mechanism nozzles. • The crack-driving force is a strong function of the nozzle yield strength, nozzle-to-head angle, interference fit, and weld residual stress; and • In many cases, when the crack is made to be perpendicular to the wall of the nozzle, the operating conditions and residual stresses appear to create some crack closure along the crack faces, suggesting that cracks in service will grow at an angle through the thickness.