Business Cycle Fluctuations and Firms' Size Distribution Dynamics

Power law behavior is an emerging property of many economic models. In this paper we emphasize the fact that power law distributions are persistent but not time invariant. In fact, the scale and shape of the firms' size distribution fluctuate over time. In particular, on a log–log space, both the intercept and the slope of the power law distribution of firms' size change over the cycle: during expansions (recessions) the straight line representing the distribution shifts up and becomes less steep (steeper). We show that the empirical distributions generated by simulations of the model presented in Ref. 11 mimic real empirical distributions remarkably well.

[1]  Danny Quah,et al.  Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth , 1993 .

[2]  J. S. Katz,et al.  The self-similar science system , 1999 .

[3]  M. Dacorogna,et al.  Statistical study of foreign exchange rates, empirical evidence of a price change scaling law, and intraday analysis , 1990 .

[4]  Ram Charan,et al.  Why companies fail. , 2002, Fortune.

[5]  S. J. Prais,et al.  The Analysis of Business Concentration: A Statistical Approach , 1956 .

[6]  P. Krugman The Self Organizing Economy , 1996 .

[7]  Steven Brakman,et al.  The Return of Zipf: Towards a Further Understanding of the Rank‐Size Distribution , 1999 .

[8]  Breakdown of Scale Invariance in the Phase Ordering of Fractal Clusters , 1998, cond-mat/9804080.

[9]  Benoit B. Mandelbrot,et al.  Fractals and Scaling in Finance , 1997 .

[10]  Self-organized critical system with no stationary attractor state. , 2002, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[11]  M. Gallegati,et al.  Bankruptcy as an exit mechanism for systems with a variable number of components , 2003, cond-mat/0312676.

[12]  Thornbjorn Knudsen,et al.  Zipf's Law for Cities and Beyond: The Case of Denmark , 2001 .

[13]  L. R. Taylor,et al.  Aggregation, Variance and the Mean , 1961, Nature.

[14]  R. Caves Industrial Organization and New Findings on the Turnover and Mobility of Firms , 1998 .

[15]  D. Gatti,et al.  A new approach to business fluctuations: heterogeneous interacting agents, scaling laws and financial fragility , 2003, cond-mat/0312096.

[16]  William A. Brock,et al.  Scaling in Economics: A Reader's Guide , 1999 .

[17]  X. Gabaix Zipf's Law for Cities: An Explanation , 1999 .

[18]  V. Plerou,et al.  Scale invariance and universality of economic fluctuations , 2000 .

[19]  Steven M. Fazzari,et al.  Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment , 1987 .

[20]  J. Sutton Technology and Market Structure , 1998 .

[21]  S. Durlauf Complexity and Empirical Economics , 2005 .

[22]  Mauro Gallegati,et al.  Power Law Scaling in the World Income Distribution , 2003 .

[23]  Takayuki Mizuno,et al.  Statistical Laws in the Income of Japanese Companies , 2002 .

[24]  Mauro Gallegati,et al.  On the size distribution of firms: additional evidence from the G7 countries , 2003 .

[25]  Keith Cowling,et al.  PRICE-COST MARGINS AND MARKET STRUCTURE , 1976 .

[26]  Maurizio Naldi,et al.  Concentration indices and Zipf’s law , 2003 .

[27]  H. Eugene Stanley,et al.  Universal features in the growth dynamics of complex organizations , 1998, cond-mat/9804100.

[28]  M. Marsili,et al.  Interacting Individuals Leading to Zipf's Law , 1998, cond-mat/9801289.

[29]  X. Gabaix Power laws and the origins of aggregate fluctuations , 2004 .

[30]  A. D. Vany Hollywood Economics: How Extreme Uncertainty Shapes the Film Industry , 2003 .

[31]  Sergey V. Buldyrev,et al.  Scaling behavior in economics: I Epirical results for company growth , 1997, cond-mat/9702082.

[32]  R. Axtell Zipf Distribution of U.S. Firm Sizes , 2001, Science.

[33]  G. G. Wood,et al.  EXTRACTION OF THE SPIN GLASS CORRELATION LENGTH , 1999 .

[34]  Sorin Solomon,et al.  Power laws in cities population, financial markets and internet sites (scaling in systems with a variable number of components) , 2000 .

[35]  S Solomon,et al.  Power-law distributions and Lévy-stable intermittent fluctuations in stochastic systems of many autocatalytic elements. , 1999, Physical review. E, Statistical physics, plasmas, fluids, and related interdisciplinary topics.

[36]  S Washburn,et al.  Effects of a parallel magnetic field on the metal-insulator transition in a dilute two-dimensional electron system. , 2002, Physical review letters.

[37]  Dietmar Harhoff,et al.  Uncertainty and the size distribution of rewards from innovation , 2000 .

[38]  Jeremy J. Ramsden,et al.  Company size distribution in different countries , 2000 .

[39]  Per Bak,et al.  How Nature Works , 1996 .

[40]  Thomas Lux,et al.  The stable Paretian hypothesis and the frequency of large returns: an examination of major German stocks , 1996 .

[41]  Y. Fujiwara Zipf Law in Firms Bankruptcy , 2003, cond-mat/0310062.

[42]  H. Takayasu,et al.  Zipf's law in income distribution of companies , 1999 .

[43]  S. Havlin,et al.  Power law scaling for a system of interacting units with complex internal structure , 1998 .