Counterfactuals and the Cuban Missile Crisis

A rule-based computer model of John F. Kennedy's decision making during the 1962 Cuban missile crisis is presented. The model is examined for empirical adequacy. The utility of models like this one for addressing counterfactual and policy questions is discussed, and substantive conclusions based on the model are reached. The most noteworthy of these is that a shorter perceived crisis time might well have led to the selection by the United States of more severe military options. Other conclusions deal with the implications of changes in Kennedy's beliefs for option choices, with Kennedy's low ranking of most nonmilitary options, and with the minimal chance of a passive U.S. response.

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