Parameters influencing the market value of wind power – a model‐based analysis of the Central European power market

SUMMARY In leading European wind power countries wind power generation affects wholesale power prices already today. First investigations indicate that the respective wind power-price relation lowers the market value of wind power relative to the baseload price with increasing penetration. The aim of this paper is to identify parameters that determine this effect based on simulations for the Central European Power Market (CEPM). We model wind power-price interactions and investigate the sensitivity of the market value on a number of wind power and system related parameters. The market value of wind power is sensitive to changes in wind share and variability, wind-demand correlation and the supply characteristics. Results further indicate that for expected wind capacities in 2020 the market value in the CEPM is significantly lower than the baseload price. The market value reducing effect varies among countries and is comparably low for wind power portfolios whose generation is weakly correlated with the overall wind power generation in the respective power market. Hence with rising wind shares it will become increasingly important to take this effectintoaccountwhenassessingtheeconomicsofwindpowerprojects.FuturetrendsintheCEPMthatmaypositivelyinfluencethemarketvalue are increasing electricity demand, fuel and CO2 prices, a better geographic distribution of onshore wind within the CEPM and an increasing utilization of offshore wind. Copyright # 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.