Extreme value analysis of daily Canadian crude oil prices

Crude oil markets are highly volatile and risky. Extreme Value Theory (EVT), an approach to modelling and measuring risks under rare events, has seen a more prominent role in risk management in recent years. This article presents an application of EVT to the daily returns of crude oil prices in the Canadian spot market between 1998 and 2006. We focus on the Peak Over Threshold (POT) method by analysing the generalized Pareto-distributed exceedances over some high threshold. This method provides an effective means for estimating tail risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES). The estimates of risk measures computed under different high quantile levels exhibit strong stability across a range of the selected thresholds. At the 99th quantile, the estimates of VaR are approximately 6.3% and 6.8% for daily positive and negative returns, respectively.

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