A Preliminary Reconstruction of Rainfall in North-Central China since A.D. 1600 from Tree-Ring Density and Width

Abstract May-June (MJ) and April-July (AJ) precipitation at Huashan in north-central China has been reconstructed for the period A.D. 1600 to 1988 using tree-ring density and width from Pinus armandii. MJ precipitation (based on ring width and maximum latewood density) calibrated and cross-validated against local instrumental data more strongly than AJ precipitation (based only on ring width). A major drought was reconstructed for the mid- and late 1920s, confirmed by local documentary sources. This drought (culminating in 1929) was the most severe of the 389-yr period for MJ and second most severe for AJ, after an event ending in 1683. Neither reconstruction shows much spectral power at frequencies lower than 1 in 10 yr, but both show concentrations of power between 2.1 and 2.7 yr and 3.5 to 9 yr. There are significant correlations between the two reconstructions and a regional dryness/wetness index (DW) based on documentary sources, particularly at high frequencies. These correlations are focused in the 7.6- to 7.3-, 3.8- to 3.6-, and 2.5-yr periods. Using singular spectrum analysis, quasiperiodic behavior with a period close to 7.2 yr was identified in the MJ precipitation reconstruction and in the DW index based on documents.

[1]  E. Rasmusson,et al.  The biennial component of ENSO variability , 1990 .

[2]  T. Wigley,et al.  England and Wales precipitation: A discussion of recent changes in ariability and an update to 1985 , 1987 .

[3]  E. Mosley‐Thompson,et al.  GLACIAL STAGE ICE-CORE RECORDS FROM THE SUBTROPICAL DUNDE ICE CAP. CHINA , 1990 .

[4]  Paul F. Velleman,et al.  Definition and Comparison of Robust Nonlinear Data Smoothing Algorithms , 1980 .

[5]  K. Potter.  Illustration of a New Test for Detecting a Shift in Mean in Precipitation Series , 1981 .

[6]  T. Wigley,et al.  On the Average Value of Correlated Time Series, with Applications in Dendroclimatology and Hydrometeorology , 1984 .

[7]  H. B. Mann.  Nonparametric Tests Against Trend , 1945 .

[8]  E. Mosley‐Thompson,et al.  Holocene—Late Pleistocene Climatic Ice Core Records from Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau , 1989, Science.

[9]  O. Lenz,et al.  Methodische Probleme bei der radiographisch-densitometrischen Bestimmung der Dichte und der Jahrringbreiten von Holz , 1976 .

[10]  Harold C. Fritts,et al.  Multivariate Techniques for Specifying Tree-Growth and Climate Relationships and for Reconstructing Anomalies in Paleoclimate , 1971 .

[11]  Thomas J. Crowley,et al.  Historical Climate Records in China and Reconstruction of Past Climates. , 1989 .

[12]  Pao K. Wang,et al.  An Introduction to Some Historical Governmental Weather Records of China , 1988 .

[13]  Wei-Chyung Wang,et al.  Precipitation Fluctuation over Semiarid Region in Northern China and the Relationship with El Niño/Southern Oscillation , 1990 .

[14]  Michael Ghil,et al.  Adaptive filtering and maximum entropy spectra with application to changes in atmospheric angular momentum , 1991 .