Simulating forest dynamics in a complex topography using gridded climatic data

The forest model ForClim was used to evaluate the applicability of gap models in complex topography when the climatic input data is provided by a global database of 0.5° resolution. The analysis was based on 12 grid cells along an altitudinal gradient in the European Alps. Forest dynamics were studied both under current climate as well as under four prescribed 2 × CO2 scenarios of climatic change obtained from General Circulation Models, which allowed to assess the sensitivity of mountainous forests to climatic change.Under current climate, ForClim produces plausible patterns of species composition in space and time, although the results for single grid cells sometimes are not representative of reality due to the limited precision of the climatic input data.Under the scenarios of climatic change, three responses of the vegetation are observed, i.e., afforestation, gradual changes of the species composition, and dieback of today's forest. In some cases widely differing species compositions are obtained depending on the climate scenario used, suggesting that mountainous forests are quite sensitive to climatic change. Some of the new forests have analogs on the modern landscape, but in other cases non-analog communities are formed, pointing at the importance of the individualistic response of species to climate.The applicability of gap models on a regular grid in a complex topography is discussed. It is concluded that for their application on a continental scale, it would be desirable to replace the species in the models by plant functional types. It is suggested that simulation studies like the present one must not be interpreted as predictions of the future fate of forests, but as means to assess their sensitivity to climatic change.

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