Data-driven decision making based on evidential reasoning approach and machine learning algorithms

Abstract Large volumes of data have been accumulated in identical or very similar contexts of decision making. To generate accurate and explanatory decision recommendations by using these data, this paper proposes a data-driven multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) method based on machine learning (ML) algorithms and the evidential reasoning (ER) approach. In the method, based on the assessments of all historical alternatives, a comparison framework is designed to determine the most appropriate ML algorithm with the highest predictive accuracy. An optimization model is then constructed to connect the appropriate ML algorithm with the ER approach. Through the optimization model, the difference between overall assessments derived from the ER approach and the predicted results derived from the appropriate ML algorithm is minimized to learn criterion weights. The learned criterion weights are used to generate accurate and explanatory decisions. Such a combination takes advantage of high predictability of ML algorithms and favorable interpretability of the ER approach simultaneously. To demonstrate the validity and applicability of the proposed method, it is used to aid the diagnosis of thyroid nodules for a tertiary hospital located in Hefei, Anhui, China. Its merits are further highlighted by its comparison with two traditional ER approaches and the appropriate ML algorithm.