On Estimating Spatial Epidemic Parameters of a Simplified Metapopulation Model

Abstract Metapopulation epidemic model describes the viral spreading between different subpopulations (cities), where the diffusion rates at which individuals, acting as viral carriers, transfer among interconnected subpopulations play a key role in affecting the spreading process. Thus a first step towards achieving better prediction or more efficient intervention of the viral spreading is to estimate such individual-mobility-related parameters. In this paper, we consider the problem of parameter identification for the metapopulation epidemic model from the time series of the infected cases number by using a maximum likelihood estimator. With the verification in two subpopulations, the agreement between analytical and numerical results verifies the validity of our method.

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