Development of a hybrid cost estimation model in an iterative manner

Cost estimation is a very crucial field for software developing companies. The acceptance of an estimation technique is highly dependent on estimation accuracy. Often, this accuracy is only determined after an initial application. Possible further steps for improving the underlying estimation model typically do not influence the decision on whether to discard the technique or deploy it. In addition, most estimation techniques do not explicitly support the evolution of the underlying estimation model in an iterative manner. This increases the risk of overlooking some important cost drivers or data inconsistencies. This paper presents an enhanced process for developing a CoBRA® cost estimation model by systematically including iterative analysis and feedback cycles, and its evaluation in a software development unit of Oki Electric Industry Co., Ltd., Japan. During the model improvement cycles, estimation accuracy was improved from an initial 120% down to 14%. In addition, lessons learned with the iterative development approach are described.

[1]  John J. Marciniak,et al.  Encyclopedia of Software Engineering , 1994, Encyclopedia of Software Engineering.

[2]  Barbara Kitchenham,et al.  Software cost models , 1984 .

[3]  D. Ross Jeffery,et al.  Calibrating estimation tools for software development , 1990, Softw. Eng. J..

[4]  Barry W. Boehm,et al.  Software Engineering Economics , 1993, IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering.

[5]  Paul E. Spector.  Summated rating scale construction , 1991 .

[6]  Ware Myers,et al.  Measures for Excellence: Reliable Software on Time, Within Budget , 1991 .

[7]  H. D. Rombach,et al.  THE EXPERIENCE FACTORY , 1999 .

[8]  Michiel van Genuchten,et al.  On the use of software cost models , 1991, Inf. Manag..

[9]  Michael J. Prietula,et al.  Examining the Feasibility of a Case-Based Reasoning Model for Software Effort Estimation , 1992, MIS Q..

[10]  Tim Menzies,et al.  Validation methods for calibrating software effort models , 2005, ICSE.

[11]  Chris F. Kemerer,et al.  An empirical validation of software cost estimation models , 1987, CACM.

[12]  David B. Dunson,et al.  Bayesian Data Analysis , 2010 .

[13]  Ellis Horowitz,et al.  Software Cost Estimation with COCOMO II , 2000 .

[14]  H. E. Dunsmore,et al.  Software engineering metrics and models , 1986 .

[15]  David S. Christensen,et al.  Calibrating Software Cost Models to Department of Defense DatabasesA Review of Ten Studies , 1998 .

[16]  Frank Bomarius,et al.  COBRA: a hybrid method for software cost estimation, benchmarking, and risk assessment , 1998, Proceedings of the 20th International Conference on Software Engineering.

[17]  Barry W. Boehm,et al.  Bayesian Analysis of Empirical Software Engineering Cost Models , 1999, IEEE Trans. Software Eng..

[18]  D. Ross Jeffery,et al.  Cost estimation for web applications , 2003, 25th International Conference on Software Engineering, 2003. Proceedings..