The impact of competition on prices with numerous firms

We use extreme value theory (EVT) to develop insights about price theory. Our analysis reveals "detail-independent" equilibrium properties that characterize a large family of models. We derive a formula relating equilibrium prices to the level of competition. When the number of firms is large, markups and prices are pinned down by the tail properties of the noise distribution and prices are independent of many other institutional details. The elasticity of the markup with respect to the number of firms is shown to be the EVT tail exponent of the distribution for preference shocks and in most leading cases is relatively insensitive to the number of firms. For example, for the Gaussian case asymptotic markups are proportional to one over the square root of log n, implying a zero asymptotic elasticity of the markup with respect to the number of firms. Thus competition only exerts weak pressure on prices. We also study applications of the model, including endogenizing the level of noise.

[1]  Roman M. Sheremeta,et al.  Visibility of Contributions and Cost of Information: An Experiment on Public Goods , 2010 .

[2]  Charles J. Thomas An Alternating-Offers Model of Multilateral Negotiations , 2012 .

[3]  Pablo Brañas-Garza,et al.  MORAL CLEANSING AND MORAL LICENSES: EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE , 2013, Economics and Philosophy.

[4]  Thomas Chaney,et al.  Distorted Gravity: The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade , 2008 .

[5]  Stephen J. Rassenti,et al.  Are Under- and Over-reaction the Same Matter? A Price Inertia based Account , 2010 .

[6]  John Dickhaut,et al.  A Neuronal Mechanism of Choice , 2008 .

[7]  Victor Stango,et al.  Competition and Pricing in the Credit Card Market , 2000, Review of Economics and Statistics.

[8]  John K. Dagsvik,et al.  Compensating variation and Hicksian choice probabilities in random utility models that are nonlinear in income , 2005 .

[9]  Roman M. Sheremeta,et al.  Simultaneous Decision‐Making in Competitive and Cooperative Environments , 2012 .

[10]  Gunduz Caginalp,et al.  Asset Market Reactions to News: An Experimental Study , 2010 .

[11]  David Porter,et al.  Affecting Policy by Manipulating Prediction Markets: Experimental Evidence , 2013 .

[12]  J. Cremona,et al.  Proceedings of the London Mathematical Society , 1893 .

[13]  Andrew Caplin,et al.  Aggregation and Imperfect Competition , 1991 .

[14]  Roman M. Sheremeta,et al.  Building and Rebuilding Trust with Promises and Apologies , 2012 .

[15]  Neil D. Pearson,et al.  The dark side of financial innovation: A case study of the pricing of a retail financial product , 2011 .

[16]  Thomas Chaney The Gravity Equation in International Trade: An Explanation , 2018 .

[17]  Onathan,et al.  Plants and Productivity in International Trade , 2004 .

[18]  Dennis W. Jansen,et al.  On the Frequency of Large Stock Returns: Putting Booms and Busts into Perspective , 1989 .

[19]  J. Perloff,et al.  Equilibrium with Product Differentiation , 1984 .

[20]  Maria Bigoni,et al.  Binding Promises and Cooperation Among Strangers , 2012 .

[21]  Glenn Ellison,et al.  Search, Obfuscation, and Price Elasticities on the Internet , 2004 .

[22]  Pablo Brañas-Garza,et al.  Self-discrimination: A field experiment on obesity , 2014 .

[23]  Bart J. Wilson,et al.  The Ecological and Civil Mainsprings of Property: An Experimental Economic History of Whalers’ Rules of Capture , 2010 .

[24]  Ran Spiegler,et al.  Competition Over Agents with Boundedly Rational Expectations , 2006 .

[25]  Roman M. Sheremeta Experimental Comparison of Multi-Stage and One-Stage Contests , 2009, Games Econ. Behav..

[26]  Daniel Houser,et al.  High Stakes Behavior with Low Payoffs: Inducing Preferences with Holt-Laury Gambles , 2009 .

[27]  Stephen J. Rassenti,et al.  The Effect of Bidding Information in Ascending Auctions , 2011 .

[28]  John Dickhaut,et al.  Generating Ambiguity in the Laboratory , 2007, Manag. Sci..

[29]  C. Leake Discrete Choice Theory of Product Differentiation , 1995 .

[30]  Nicola Gennaioli,et al.  Competition for Attention , 2013 .

[31]  Maria Bigoni,et al.  Strategies of Cooperation and Punishment Among Students and Clerical Workers , 2012, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[32]  X. Gabaix The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations , 2009 .

[33]  Frank E. Grubbs,et al.  An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications , 1951 .

[34]  D. Porter,et al.  Radio Spectrum and the Disruptive Clarity of Ronald Coase , 2010, The Journal of Law and Economics.

[35]  Costas Arkolakis,et al.  The Elusive Pro-Competitive Effects of Trade , 2015 .

[36]  B. Gnedenko Sur La Distribution Limite Du Terme Maximum D'Une Serie Aleatoire , 1943 .

[37]  Nikos Nikiforakis,et al.  Perfect and imperfect real-time monitoring in a minimum-effort game , 2012 .

[38]  Vernon L. Smith,et al.  Balance Sheet Crises: Causes, Consequences, and Responses , 2013 .

[39]  Jared Rubin,et al.  Principal-Agent Settings with Random Shocks , 2012 .

[40]  R. Duncan Luce,et al.  Individual Choice Behavior , 1959 .

[41]  X. Vives Oligopoly Pricing: Old Ideas and New Tools , 1999 .

[42]  Thomas A. Turk,et al.  Too Many Cooks Spoil the Broth: How the tragedy of the anticommons emerges in organizations , 2012 .

[43]  Roman M. Sheremeta,et al.  Three‐Player Trust Game with Insider Communication , 2012 .

[44]  David Porter,et al.  Group Prediction in Information Markets With and Without Trading Information and Price Manipulation Incentives , 2008 .

[45]  Robin Hanson,et al.  Can Manipulators Mislead Prediction Market Observers , 2008 .

[46]  B. Harshbarger An Introduction to Probability Theory and its Applications, Volume I , 1958 .

[47]  Balázs Szentes,et al.  An alternative to signaling: directed search and substitution , 2016 .

[48]  André de Palma,et al.  Discrete Choice Theory of Product Differentiation , 1995 .

[49]  Roman M. Sheremeta,et al.  Endowment Origin, Demographic Effects, and Individual Preferences in Contests , 2012 .

[50]  Han Hong,et al.  Rates of information aggregation in common value auctions , 2004, J. Econ. Theory.

[51]  Paul Klemperer,et al.  Regulated Prices, Rent Seeking, and Consumer Surplus , 2012, Journal of Political Economy.

[52]  Sidney I. Resnick,et al.  Asymptotic location and recurrence properties of maxima of a sequence of random variables defined on a Markov chain , 1971 .

[53]  R. Luce,et al.  Individual Choice Behavior: A Theoretical Analysis. , 1960 .

[54]  Shengle Lin,et al.  Gradual Information Diffusion and Asset Price Momentum , 2010 .

[55]  Raphael Auer,et al.  Exchange Rate Pass-Through in a Competitive Model of Pricing-to-Market , 2009 .

[56]  Ali Hortaçsu,et al.  Product Differentiation, Search Costs, and Competition in the Mutual Fund Industry: A Case Study of S&P 500 Index Funds , 2003 .

[57]  Cary Deck,et al.  Price increasing competition? Experimental evidence , 2012 .

[58]  John Dickhaut,et al.  Durability, Re-trading and Market Performance , 2010 .

[59]  Michael J. Mazzeo Product Choice and Oligopoly Market Structure , 2002 .

[60]  Roman M. Sheremeta,et al.  Facing Your Opponents , 2016 .

[61]  Trevor J. Sweeting,et al.  On Domains of Uniform Local Attraction in Extreme Value Theory , 1985 .

[62]  Bart J. Wilson,et al.  An experiment on protecting intellectual property , 2014 .

[63]  Roman M. Sheremeta Overbidding and Heterogeneous Behavior in Contest Experiments , 2013 .

[64]  Sidney I. Resnick,et al.  Limiting Behaviour of Sums and the Term of Maximum Modulus , 1984 .

[65]  S. Wood-Dauphinée,et al.  There's no place like home : an evaluation of early supported discharge for stroke. , 2000, Stroke.

[66]  Bart J. Wilson,et al.  Mine and Thine: The Territorial Foundations of Human Property , 2010 .

[67]  Jeremy I. Bulow,et al.  Prices and the Winner's Curse , 1999 .

[68]  Erzo G. J. Luttmer Selection, Growth, and the Size Distribution of Firms , 2007 .

[69]  J. Geanakoplos,et al.  Multimarket Oligopoly: Strategic Substitutes and Complements , 1985, Journal of Political Economy.

[70]  Erik O. Kimbrough,et al.  Can Markets Save Lives? An Experimental Investigation of a Market for Organ Donations , 2010 .

[71]  Michael Sattinger,et al.  Value of an Additional Firm in Monopolistic Competition , 1984 .

[72]  Lawrence M. Ausubel The Failure of Competition in the Credit Card Market , 1991 .

[73]  Johan Walden,et al.  Diversification disasters , 2010 .

[74]  Duncan J. Watts,et al.  Collective dynamics of ‘small-world’ networks , 1998, Nature.

[75]  A. Dixit,et al.  Monopolistic competition and optimum product diversity , 1977 .

[76]  Richard A. Davis,et al.  A characterization of multivariate regular variation , 2002 .

[77]  Roman M. Sheremeta,et al.  Overdissipation and Convergence in Rent-Seeking Experiments: Cost Structure and Prize Allocation Rules , 2012 .

[78]  B. Carlin Strategic Price Complexity in Retail Financial Markets , 2006 .

[79]  Roman M. Sheremeta,et al.  Conflicted Minds: Recalibrational Emotions Following Trust-Based Interaction , 2013 .

[80]  Jacques-François Thisse,et al.  Monopolistic Competition: Beyond the Constant Elasticity of Substitution , 2012 .

[81]  E. Weyl,et al.  Pass-Through as an Economic Tool: Principles of Incidence under Imperfect Competition , 2013, Journal of Political Economy.

[82]  Andreu Mas-Colell,et al.  A model of equilibrium with differentiated commodities , 1975 .

[83]  Feller William,et al.  An Introduction To Probability Theory And Its Applications , 1950 .

[84]  Sephorah Mangin,et al.  A Theory of Production, Matching, and Distribution , 2015, J. Econ. Theory.

[85]  Roman M. Sheremeta,et al.  Best-of-Three Contests: Experimental Evidence , 2011 .

[86]  David Porter,et al.  Experimental Evidence on the Properties of the California’s Cap and Trade Price Containment Reserve , 2012 .

[87]  Timothy B. Armstrong Large Market Asymptotics for Differentiated Product Demand Estimators With Economic Models of Supply , 2016 .

[88]  Lei Si Ni Ke Resnick.S.I. Extreme values. regular variation. and point processes , 2011 .

[89]  Roman M. Sheremeta,et al.  The attack and defense of weakest-link networks , 2010, Public Choice.

[90]  Ali Hortaçsu,et al.  Product Differentiation, Search Costs, and Competition in the Mutual Fund Industry: A Case Study of S&P 500 Index Funds , 2003 .

[91]  David Porter,et al.  Information Effects in Multi-Unit Dutch Auctions , 2012 .

[92]  Bart J. Wilson,et al.  Go West Young Man: Self-selection and Endogenous Property Rights , 2013 .

[93]  Baohua Xin,et al.  Higher-order Beliefs in Simple Trading Models , 2012 .

[94]  Nicola Gennaioli,et al.  Money Doctors: Money Doctors , 2015 .

[95]  Wagner A. Kamakura,et al.  Book Review: Structural Analysis of Discrete Data with Econometric Applications , 1982 .

[96]  Roman M. Sheremeta,et al.  Winner-Take-All and Proportional-Prize Contests: Theory and Experimental Results , 2013, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization.

[97]  Ryan Oprea,et al.  War of Attrition: Evidence from a Laboratory Experiment on Market Exit , 2013 .

[98]  Frank Smets,et al.  Slow Recoveries: A Structural Interpretation , 2012 .

[99]  E. Glen Weyl,et al.  Pass-through as an Economic Tool , 2009 .

[100]  John Dickhaut,et al.  Decision making and trade without probabilities , 2006 .

[101]  Steven Gjerstad,et al.  Housing Market Price Tier Movements in an Expansion and Collapse , 2009 .

[102]  Vernon L. Smith,et al.  Household expenditure cycles and economic cycles, 1920 - 2010 , 2010 .

[103]  Roman M. Sheremeta,et al.  A generalized Tullock contest , 2010 .

[104]  Nicholas Oulton,et al.  Zipf and the size distribution of firms , 1997 .

[105]  Mark Armstrong,et al.  Consumer protection and contingent charges , 2012 .

[106]  Ismael Rodriguez-Lara,et al.  Are you a good employee or simply a good guy? Influence Costs and Contract Design , 2013 .

[107]  Gabriele Camera,et al.  Buyer's Equilibrium with Capacity Constraints and Restricted Mobility: A Recursive Approach , 2013 .

[108]  A. A. Balkema,et al.  On r. von mises' condition for the domain of attraction of exp(-e ) : Prepublication; improved ed. of sw 8/71 , 1971 .

[109]  Patrick Bajari,et al.  Discrete Choice Models as Structural Models of Demand: Some Economic Implications of Common Approaches , 2001 .

[110]  Roman M. Sheremeta,et al.  Restoring Damaged Trust with Promises, Atonement and Apology , 2011 .

[111]  X. Gabaix Zipf's Law for Cities: An Explanation , 1999 .

[112]  D. McFadden Econometric Models of Probabilistic Choice , 1981 .

[113]  Roman M. Sheremeta Perfect-Substitutes, Best-Shot, and Weakest-Link Contests between Groups , 2009 .

[114]  Peter Tufano,et al.  Assessing the Costs and Benefits of Brokers in the Mutual Fund Industry , 2007 .

[115]  Eric Schniter,et al.  Trust, Reciprocity, and Rules , 2018 .

[116]  Michael Woodford,et al.  Interest and Prices , 2011 .

[117]  Johan Walden,et al.  Optimal Bundling Strategies Under Heavy-Tailed Valuations , 2010, Manag. Sci..

[118]  Dan Kovenock,et al.  Extremism drives out moderation , 2015, Soc. Choice Welf..

[119]  R. Vishny,et al.  Money Doctors , 2012 .

[120]  O. Hart MONOPOLISTIC COMPETITION IN THE SPIRIT OF CHAMBERLIN: SPECIAL RESULTS , 1985 .

[121]  M. Meerschaert Regular Variation in R k , 1988 .

[122]  Roman M. Sheremeta,et al.  Contest Design: An Experimental Investigation , 2009 .

[123]  O. Hart Monopolistic Competition in the Spirit of Chamberlin: A General Model , 1985 .

[124]  Thomas Chaney,et al.  The Gravity Equation in International Trade: An Explanation , 2013, Journal of Political Economy.

[125]  F. Smets,et al.  An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area. NBB Working Paper Nr. 35 , 2002 .

[126]  L. Haan On regular variation and its application to the weak convergence of sample extremes , 1973 .

[127]  Roman M. Sheremeta,et al.  Endowment Effects in Contests , 2009 .

[128]  Pablo Brañas-Garza,et al.  Students, Volunteers and Subjects: Experiments on Social Preferences , 2012 .

[129]  Holger Rootzén A ratio limit theorem for the tails of weighted sums , 1987 .

[130]  Robert W. Rosenthal,et al.  A Model in Which an Increase in the Number of Sellers Leads to a Higher Price , 1980 .

[131]  G. Ottaviano,et al.  Market Size, Trade, and Productivity , 2005, World Scientific Studies in International Economics.

[132]  Charles I. Jones,et al.  Insurance and Incentives for Medical Innovation , 2006 .

[133]  Jonathan Eaton,et al.  Technology, Geography, and Trade , 2002 .

[134]  Neslihan Uler,et al.  (Bad) Luck or (Lack of) Effort?: Comparing Social Sharing Norms between US and Europe , 2011 .

[135]  Deyuan Li ON THE PROBABILITY OF BEING MAXIMAL , 2008 .

[136]  Charles J. Thomas,et al.  Horizontal Product Differentiation in Auctions and Multilateral Negotiations , 2012 .

[137]  David M. Grether,et al.  Intimidation or Impatience? Jump Bidding in On-line Ascending Automobile Auctions , 2011 .

[138]  Daron Acemoglu,et al.  Fragility of asymptotic agreement under Bayesian learning: Fragility of asymptotic agreement , 2016 .

[139]  Roland Bénabou,et al.  Search with Learning from Prices: Does Increased Inflationary Uncertainty Lead to Higher Markups? , 1993 .

[140]  Steven T. Berry,et al.  Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium , 1995 .

[141]  S. Rosen The Economics of Superstars , 1981 .

[142]  Roman M. Sheremeta,et al.  Transparency, Efficiency and the Distribution of Economic Welfare in Pass-Through Investment Trust Games , 2011 .

[143]  Roman M. Sheremeta,et al.  You Can’t Put Old Wine in New Bottles: The Effect of Newcomers on Coordination in Groups , 2013, PloS one.

[144]  Roman M. Sheremeta Expenditures and Information Disclosure in Two-Stage Political Contests , 2010 .

[145]  C. I. Jones,et al.  The Shape of Production Function and the Direction of Technical Change , 2004 .

[146]  Bart J. Wilson,et al.  Anarchy, groups, and conflict: an experiment on the emergence of protective associations , 2012, Soc. Choice Welf..

[147]  Roman M. Sheremeta,et al.  Best-of-Three Contest Experiments: Strategic Versus Psychological Momentum , 2012 .

[148]  Penélope Hernández,et al.  Strategic behavior in Schelling dynamics: A new result and experimental evidence , 2011 .

[149]  Roberto Hernán González,et al.  Asymmetry and Deception in the Investment Game , 2012 .

[150]  Roman M. Sheremeta,et al.  Why Can’t We Be Friends? Entitlements, Bargaining, and Conflict , 2012 .

[151]  Joaquín Gómez-Miñambres,et al.  Goal Setting and Monetary Incentives: When Large Stakes Are Not Enough , 2013, Manag. Sci..

[152]  Roman M. Sheremeta,et al.  A survey of experimental research on contests, all-pay auctions and tournaments , 2012, Experimental Economics.

[153]  A. Atkeson,et al.  Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Research Department Staff Report 404 Pricing-to-market, Trade Costs, and International Relative Prices * , 2022 .

[154]  Roman M. Sheremeta,et al.  Resolving Conflicts by a Random Device , 2012 .

[155]  Paul Heidhues,et al.  Inferior Products and Profitable Deception , 2017 .

[156]  Timothy W. Shields Do Analysts Tell the Truth? Do Shareholders Listen? An Experimental Study of Analysts' Forecasts and Shareholder Reaction , 2008 .

[157]  Ellen R. McGrattan,et al.  New Keynesian Models: Not Yet Useful for Policy Analysis , 2008 .

[158]  Timothy N. Cason,et al.  Behavioral spillovers in coordination games , 2012 .

[159]  M. Riordan,et al.  Price‐increasing competition , 2008 .

[160]  Jeffrey R. Campbell,et al.  Market Size Matters , 2000 .

[161]  Daniel Quint,et al.  Imperfect competition with complements and substitutes , 2014, J. Econ. Theory.

[162]  Roman M. Sheremeta,et al.  The Equivalence of Contests , 2009 .

[163]  R. Duncan Luce,et al.  Individual Choice Behavior: A Theoretical Analysis , 1979 .

[164]  C. Klüppelberg,et al.  Modelling Extremal Events , 1997 .

[165]  S. Resnick Extreme Values, Regular Variation, and Point Processes , 1987 .

[166]  Xavier Vives,et al.  On the efficiency of Bertrand and Cournot equilibria with product differentation , 1985 .

[167]  Roman M. Sheremeta,et al.  Do Liars Believe? Beliefs and Other-Regarding Preferences in the Sender-Receiver Game , 2011 .

[168]  V. Smith,et al.  Double Bubbles in Assets Markets With Multiple Generations , 2014 .

[169]  Roman M. Sheremeta,et al.  Side-Payments and the Costs of Conflict , 2012 .

[170]  X. Gabaix,et al.  Why Has CEO Pay Increased so Much? , 2006 .

[171]  A. A. Balkema,et al.  On R. Von Mises' Condition for the Domain of Attraction of $\exp(-e^{-x})^1$ , 1971 .

[172]  Glenn M. Pfeiffer,et al.  Performance-Based Compensation and Firm Value – Experimental Evidence , 2015 .

[173]  Dwight M. Jaffee,et al.  Nondiversification Traps in Catastrophe Insurance Markets , 2009 .

[174]  Cary Deck,et al.  Personality and the Consistency of Risk Taking Behavior: Experimental Evidence , 2010 .

[175]  Joaquín Gómez-Miñambres,et al.  Menu-Dependent Emotions and Self-Control , 2014 .

[176]  Pablo Brañas-Garza,et al.  Cognitive effort in the Beauty Contest Game , 2012 .

[177]  John K. Dagsvik,et al.  Discrete and Continuous Choice, Max-Stable Processes, and Independence from Irrelevant Attributes , 1994 .

[178]  Roman M. Sheremeta,et al.  Make Him an Offer He Can’t Refuse: Avoiding Conflicts Through Side-Payments , 2010 .

[179]  Timothy F. Bresnahan,et al.  Entry and Competition in Concentrated Markets , 1991, Journal of Political Economy.

[180]  Vasco M. Carvalho,et al.  The Network Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations , 2011 .

[181]  Timothy N. Cason,et al.  Cooperation Spillovers in Coordination Games , 2009 .

[182]  Roman M. Sheremeta,et al.  Fight or Flight? Defending Against Sequential Attacks in the Game of Siege , 2010 .

[183]  S. Rassenti,et al.  Peer Pressure and Moral Hazard in Teams: Experimental Evidence , 2015 .

[184]  Daron Acemoglu,et al.  Fragility of Asymptotic Agreement Under Bayesian Learning , 2008 .

[185]  Roman M. Sheremeta,et al.  Entry into Winner-Take-All and Proportional-Prize Contests: An Experimental Study , 2010 .

[186]  S. Rassenti,et al.  Real Effort, Real Leisure and Real-time Supervision: Incentives and Peer Pressure in Virtual Organizations , 2011 .

[187]  James Pickands,et al.  The Continuous and Differentiable Domains of Attraction of the Extreme Value Distributions , 1986 .

[188]  David Porter,et al.  The Effect of Reliability, Content and Timing of Public Announcements on Asset Trading Behavior , 2010 .

[189]  Roman M. Sheremeta,et al.  Multi-Battle Contests: An Experimental Study , 2016 .

[190]  Brice Corgnet,et al.  Don't Ask Me If You Will Not Listen: The Dilemma of Consultative Participation , 2014, Manag. Sci..

[191]  David Porter,et al.  Prediction Markets in the Laboratory , 2013 .