Mapping of Aedes albopictus Abundance at a Local Scale in Italy

Given the growing risk of arbovirus outbreaks in Europe, there is a clear need to better describe the distribution of invasive mosquito species such as Aedes albopictus. Current challenges consist in simulating Ae. albopictus abundance, rather than its presence, and mapping its simulated abundance at a local scale to better assess the transmission risk of mosquito-borne pathogens and optimize mosquito control strategy. During 2014–2015, we sampled adult mosquitoes using 72 BG-Sentinel traps per year in the provinces of Belluno and Trento, Italy. We found that the sum of Ae. albopictus females collected during eight trap nights from June to September was positively related to the mean temperature of the warmest quarter and the percentage of artificial areas in a 250 m buffer around the sampling locations. Maps of Ae. albopictus abundance simulated from the most parsimonious model in the study area showed the largest populations in highly artificial areas with the highest summer temperatures, but with a high uncertainty due to the variability of the trapping collections. Vector abundance maps at a local scale should be promoted to support stakeholders and policy-makers in optimizing vector surveillance and control.

[1]  Andrew P. Morse,et al.  Suitability of European climate for the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus: recent trends and future scenarios , 2012, Journal of The Royal Society Interface.

[2]  Markus Metz,et al.  GRASS GIS: A multi-purpose open source GIS , 2012, Environ. Model. Softw..

[3]  M. Neteler,et al.  Terra and Aqua satellites track tiger mosquito invasion: modelling the potential distribution of Aedes albopictus in north-eastern Italy , 2011, International journal of health geographics.

[4]  R. Bellini,et al.  Quality control and data validation procedure in large-scale quantitative monitoring of mosquito density: the case of Aedes albopictus in Emilia-Romagna region, Italy , 2017, Pathogens and global health.

[5]  Thomas R. Allen,et al.  Remote Sensing and Modeling of Mosquito Abundance and Habitats in Coastal Virginia, USA , 2011, Remote. Sens..

[6]  M. Neteler,et al.  Climatic suitability of Aedes albopictus in Europe referring to climate change projections: comparison of mechanistic and correlative niche modelling approaches. , 2014, Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin.

[7]  S. Cunze,et al.  Aedes albopictus and Its Environmental Limits in Europe , 2016, PloS one.

[8]  Lindsay P. Campbell,et al.  Climate change influences on global distributions of dengue and chikungunya virus vectors , 2015, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[9]  A. Rizzoli,et al.  A 2-yr Mosquito Survey Focusing on Aedes koreicus (Diptera: Culicidae) in Northern Italy and Implications for Adult Trapping , 2017, Journal of Medical Entomology.

[10]  H. Delatte,et al.  Influence of Temperature on Immature Development, Survival, Longevity, Fecundity, and Gonotrophic Cycles of Aedes albopictus, Vector of Chikungunya and Dengue in the Indian Ocean , 2009, Journal of medical entomology.

[11]  John Sibert,et al.  AD Model Builder: using automatic differentiation for statistical inference of highly parameterized complex nonlinear models , 2012, Optim. Methods Softw..

[12]  Michael J. Crawley,et al.  The R book , 2022 .

[13]  S. Juliano,et al.  Temperature Effects on the Dynamics of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) Populations in the Laboratory , 2001, Journal of medical entomology.

[14]  Mario Giacobini,et al.  Early warning of West Nile virus mosquito vector: climate and land use models successfully explain phenology and abundance of Culex pipiens mosquitoes in north-western Italy , 2014, Parasites & Vectors.

[15]  A. Mathis,et al.  Dengue and dengue vectors in the WHO European region: past, present, and scenarios for the future. , 2014, The Lancet. Infectious diseases.

[16]  J. Elith,et al.  Species Distribution Models: Ecological Explanation and Prediction Across Space and Time , 2009 .

[17]  Guofa Zhou,et al.  Urbanization Increases Aedes albopictus Larval Habitats and Accelerates Mosquito Development and Survivorship , 2014, PLoS neglected tropical diseases.

[18]  Paul E. Parham,et al.  The role of environmental variables on Aedes albopictus biology and chikungunya epidemiology , 2013, Pathogens and global health.

[19]  C. Beierkuhnlein,et al.  Low-temperature threshold for egg survival of a post-diapause and non-diapause European aedine strain, Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) , 2012, Parasites & Vectors.

[20]  B. Caputo,et al.  From eggs to bites: do ovitrap data provide reliable estimates of Aedes albopictus biting females? , 2017, PeerJ.

[21]  F. Simard,et al.  The Spread of Aedes albopictus in Metropolitan France: Contribution of Environmental Drivers and Human Activities and Predictions for a Near Future , 2015, PloS one.

[22]  Markus Metz,et al.  Potential Risk of Dengue and Chikungunya Outbreaks in Northern Italy Based on a Population Model of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) , 2016, PLoS neglected tropical diseases.

[23]  N. Golding,et al.  Tracking the distribution and impacts of diseases with biological records and distribution modelling , 2015 .

[24]  C. Jessica E. Metcalf,et al.  Assessing the global threat from Zika virus , 2016, Science.

[25]  J. Medlock,et al.  Public health significance of invasive mosquitoes in Europe. , 2013, Clinical microbiology and infection : the official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases.

[26]  Durrell D. Kapan,et al.  Spatially disaggregated disease transmission risk: land cover, land use and risk of dengue transmission on the island of Oahu , 2011, Tropical medicine & international health : TM & IH.

[27]  D. Strickman,et al.  Suppression of Aedes albopictus, the Asian tiger mosquito, using a 'hot spot' approach. , 2016, Pest management science.

[28]  Markus Metz,et al.  Surface Temperatures at the Continental Scale: Tracking Changes with Remote Sensing at Unprecedented Detail , 2014, Remote. Sens..

[29]  David L. Smith,et al.  The global distribution of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus , 2015, eLife.

[30]  Alain F. Zuur,et al.  A protocol for conducting and presenting results of regression‐type analyses , 2016 .

[31]  N. Becker,et al.  Field evaluation of four widely used mosquito traps in Central Europe , 2014, Parasites & Vectors.

[32]  C Ippoliti,et al.  A geographical information system-based multicriteria evaluation to map areas at risk for Rift Valley fever vector-borne transmission in Italy. , 2013, Transboundary and emerging diseases.

[33]  Gregory M. Williams,et al.  Field Efficacy of BG-Sentinel and Industry-Standard Traps for Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) and West Nile Virus Surveillance , 2009, Journal of medical entomology.

[34]  R. Bellini,et al.  First record of Stegomyia albopicta in Turkey determined by active ovitrap surveillance and DNA barcoding. , 2013, Vector Borne and Zoonotic Diseases.

[35]  E. Scholte,et al.  Monitoring population and environmental parameters of invasive mosquito species in Europe , 2014, Parasites & Vectors.

[36]  F. Russo,et al.  Distribution and habitat characterization of the recently introduced invasive mosquito Aedes koreicus [Hulecoeteomyia koreica], a new potential vector and pest in north-eastern Italy , 2013, Parasites & Vectors.

[37]  D. Strickman,et al.  Larval Mosquito Habitat Utilization and Community Dynamics of Aedes albopictus and Aedes japonicus (Diptera: Culicidae) , 2012, Journal of medical entomology.

[38]  M. Neteler,et al.  Climatic Factors Driving Invasion of the Tiger Mosquito (Aedes albopictus) into New Areas of Trentino, Northern Italy , 2011, PloS one.

[39]  H. Delatte,et al.  Spread of invasive Aedes albopictus and decline of resident Aedes aegypti in urban areas of Mayotte 2007–2010 , 2012, Biological Invasions.

[40]  S. Merler,et al.  Assessing the potential risk of Zika virus epidemics in temperate areas with established Aedes albopictus populations. , 2016, Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin.

[41]  E. Roark,et al.  Dispersal of male and female Culex quinquefasciatus and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes using stable isotope enrichment , 2017, PLoS neglected tropical diseases.

[42]  M. Neteler,et al.  First assessment of potential distribution and dispersal capacity of the emerging invasive mosquito Aedes koreicus in Northeast Italy , 2016, Parasites & Vectors.

[43]  R. Bellini,et al.  Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) Population Size Survey in the 2007 Chikungunya Outbreak Area in Italy. I. Characterization of Breeding Sites and Evaluation of Sampling Methodologies , 2011, Journal of medical entomology.

[44]  O. Edenhofer,et al.  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) , 2013 .

[45]  A. Covich,et al.  Weather and Landscape Factors Associated with Adult Mosquito Abundance in Southwestern Georgia, U.S.A. , 2011, Journal of vector ecology : journal of the Society for Vector Ecology.

[46]  A. Tran,et al.  A Rainfall- and Temperature-Driven Abundance Model for Aedes albopictus Populations , 2013, International journal of environmental research and public health.

[47]  A. Farajollahi,et al.  Climate Change and Range Expansion of the Asian Tiger Mosquito (Aedes albopictus) in Northeastern USA: Implications for Public Health Practitioners , 2013, PloS one.

[48]  M. Neteler,et al.  Spatial and Temporal Hot Spots of Aedes albopictus Abundance inside and outside a South European Metropolitan Area , 2016, PLoS neglected tropical diseases.

[49]  D. Griffith,et al.  Geomapping generalized eigenvalue frequency distributions for predicting prolific Aedes albopictus and Culex quinquefasciatus habitats based on spatiotemporal field-sampled count data. , 2011, Acta tropica.

[50]  Lukas H. Meyer,et al.  Summary for Policymakers , 2022, The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate.

[51]  D. Kline,et al.  Detection of and Monitoring for Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in Suburban and Sylvatic Habitats in North Central Florida using Four Sampling Techniques , 2010, Environmental entomology.

[52]  Kristopher L. Arheart,et al.  New Baseline Environmental Assessment of Mosquito Ecology in Northern Haiti during Increased Urbanization , 2015, Journal of vector ecology : journal of the Society for Vector Ecology.

[53]  F. Sangermano,et al.  Evaluation of species distribution model algorithms for fine‐scale container‐breeding mosquito risk prediction , 2011, Medical and veterinary entomology.

[54]  B. Romano,et al.  Half a century of urbanization in southern European lowlands: a study on the Po Valley (Northern Italy) , 2016 .

[55]  R. Bellini,et al.  Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) Population Size Survey in the 2007 Chikungunya Outbreak Area in Italy. II: Estimating Epidemic Thresholds , 2012, Journal of medical entomology.

[56]  B. Caputo,et al.  Study of Aedes albopictus dispersal in Rome, Italy, using sticky traps in mark–release–recapture experiments , 2010, Medical and veterinary entomology.

[57]  S. Cunze,et al.  Erratum to: Aedes albopictus and Aedes japonicus - two invasive mosquito species with different temperature niches in Europe , 2016, Parasites & Vectors.