New Zealand's potential forest pattern as predicted from current species‐environment relationships

Abstract New Zealand's potentid forest compoSition was predicted from regressions relating the distributions Of major canopy tree species to environment. Environmental variables, chosen for their correspondence to major tree physiological processes* inc1uded annual and seasod temperature and solar radiation, soil and atmospheric water deficit, soil leaching, slope, and Soil parent material and &ainage. Envkomend values were estimated both for a large set of irrgularly distributed plots describing fmest composition, and Points on a l‐km grid across New Zealand. Regressions were fitted to the plot data sPsies by Species with those for the four Nithofagus species also Including terms to correct for the effects of their geographic disjunctions. Regressions for other species contained both environmental variables and terms to account for their competitive interactions with the patchily distributed but strongly competitive Nothofagus species. Predictions of species abundance were then made for the grid data set, and the resulting matrix was classified to derive groups of similar composition. Results agree closely with published descriptions of New Zealand's forests, including for Sites 10% deforested. They are exPected to Provide a context for both the assessment of the biodiversity value of surviving forest relnnants and for the subsequent management and/or restoration of these sites.

[1]  G. Glasby.  A review of the concept of sustainable management as applied to New Zealand , 1991 .

[2]  David A. James.  Modern Applied Statistics With S-PLUS , 1994 .

[3]  D. Pocknall,et al.  Vegetation near Lake Poukawa prior to the Taupo Eruption , 1984 .

[4]  S. E. Masters,et al.  The national forest survey of New Zealand, 1955. Volume. I. The indigenous forest resources of New Zeland. , 1957 .

[5]  J. Wardle,et al.  Forests and scrublands of northern Fiordland. , 1971 .

[6]  J. A. Johnston,et al.  Distribution of subfossil forest remains, eastern South Island, New Zealand , 1963 .

[7]  G. Taylor.  Flora of New Zealand , 1915, Nature.

[8]  J. Ogden,et al.  BOTANICAL BRIEFING Fire, Forest Regeneration and Links with Early Human Habitation: Evidence from New Zealand , 1998 .

[9]  David Whitehead,et al.  Soil and atmospheric water deficits and the distribution of New Zealand's indigenous tree species , 2001 .

[10]  Eric Pawson.  The New Zealand Historical Atlas , 1997 .

[11]  E. W. Jones,et al.  The Synecology of the West Taupo Indigenous Forest. , 1965 .

[12]  T. Yee,et al.  Generalized additive models in plant ecology , 1991 .

[13]  G. Dunnet,et al.  The natural history of Canterbury , 1970 .

[14]  M. Smale.  White Pine Bush & an alluvial kahikatea (Dacrycarpus dacrydioides) forest remnant, eastern Bay of Plenty, New Zealand , 1984 .

[15]  M. McGlone.  Polynesian Deforestation of New Zealand: A Preliminary Synthesis , 1983 .

[16]  H. Connor,et al.  Name changes in the indigenous New Zealand flora, 1960–1986 and Nomina Nova IV, 1983–1986 , 1987 .

[17]  M. McGlone.  The Polynesian settlement of New Zealand in relation to environmental and biotic changes , 1989 .

[18]  Lee Belbin,et al.  Comparing three classification strategies for use in ecology , 1993 .

[19]  J. Gower.  A General Coefficient of Similarity and Some of Its Properties , 1971 .

[20]  J. Leathwick,et al.  Climate Surfaces for New Zealand , 2002 .

[21]  J. Leathwick,et al.  The lowland vegetation pattern, south Westland, New Zealand 1. Saltwater Ecological Area , 1990 .

[22]  J. Wardle,et al.  INFLUENCE OF UNGULATES ON THE FORESTS AND SCRUBLANDS OF SOUTH WESTLAND , 1971 .

[23]  J. Leathwick,et al.  COMPETITIVE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN TREE SPECIES IN NEW ZEALAND'S OLD‐GROWTH INDIGENOUS FORESTS , 2001 .

[24]  Stefan Sperlich,et al.  Generalized Additive Models , 2014 .

[25]  Alan F. Mark,et al.  The botanical component of conservation in New Zealand , 1985 .

[26]  Lee Belbin,et al.  A new approach to the species classification problem in floristic analysis , 1982 .

[27]  J. Leathwick.  Are New Zealand's Nothofagus species in equilibrium with their environment? , 1998 .

[28]  J. Leathwick,et al.  Forest pattern, climate and vulcanism in central North Island, New Zealand , 1992 .

[29]  J. Leathwick,et al.  Vegetation-environment relationships at Waipoua Forest, Northland, New Zealand , 1996 .

[30]  Soils Division..  Land use capability survey handbook. A New Zealand handbook for the classification of land. , 1969 .

[31]  J. Wardle.  The New Zealand beeches: Ecology, utilisation, and management , 1984 .

[32]  J. Harrison,et al.  Plant communities, landforms, and soils of a geomorphically active drainage basin, Southern Alps, New Zealand , 1987 .

[33]  Vegetation of the pureora mountain ecological area West Taupo, New Zealand , 1988 .

[34]  J. Wilson,et al.  A method for determining indigenous vegetation from simple environmental factors, and its use for vegetation restoration , 1991 .