Carbon Budgets for Aviation or Gamble with Our Future

Abstract Purpose/approach Despite the high profile of climate change rhetoric and the carbon intensive nature of flying, policies for controlling CO2 from aviation remain at odds with global commitments on climate change. Taking a carbon budgeting approach to compare future aviation scenarios with the scale of necessary emission reductions demonstrates the extent of this contradiction. The significant potential for ongoing aviation growth contrasts with the need to curb substantially global CO2 emissions across all sectors. For even a 50:50 chance of staying within the 2°C threshold, emission pathways imply around a 75% cut in absolute emissions by 2050 (from 1990 levels). Set against this, aviation’s CO2 emissions are expected to grow by between 170% and 480% over the same period, and they could feasibly be higher still. Originality/findings For the international community to be serious about its climate change commitments, moral and ethical concerns need to be considered alongside technical and economic issues. It is timely to question whether expansion of an industry with few technological options for decarbonisation is a reasonable way to gamble with our future.