A physically based strong ground-motion prediction methodology; application to PSHA and the 1999 Mw = 6.0 Athens earthquake

SUMMARY We present a physically based methodology to predict the range of ground-motion hazard for earthquakes along specific faults or within specific source volumes, and we demonstrate how to incorporate this methodology into probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA). By ‘physically based,’ we refer to ground-motion syntheses derived from physics and an understanding of the earthquake process. This approach replaces the aleatory uncertainty that current PSHA studies estimate by regression of empirical parameters with epistemic uncertainty that is expressed by the variability in the physical parameters of the earthquake rupture. Epistemic uncertainty can be reduced by further research. We modelled wave propagation with empirical Green’s functions. We applied our methodology to the 1999 September 7 M w = 6.0 Athens earthquake for frequencies between 1 and 20 Hz. We developed constraints on rupture parameters based on prior knowledge of the earthquake rupture process and on sources within the region, and computed a sufficient number of scenario earthquakes to span the full variability of ground motion possible for a magnitude M w = 6.0 earthquake with our approach. We found that: (1) our distribution of synthesized ground motions spans what actually occurred and that the distribution is realistically narrow; (2) one of our source models generates records that match observed time histories well; (3) certain combinations of rupture parameters produced ‘extreme,’ but not unrealistic ground motions at some stations; (4) the best-fitting rupture models occur in the vicinity of 38.05 ◦ N, 23.60 ◦ W with a centre of rupture near a 12-km depth and have nearly unilateral rupture toward the areas of high damage, which is consistent with independent investigations. We synthesized ground motion in the areas of high damage where strong motion records were not recorded from this earthquake. We also developed a demonstration PSHA for a single magnitude earthquake and for a single source region near Athens. We assumed an average return period of 1000 yr for this magnitude earthquake and synthesized 500 earthquakes distributed throughout the source zone, thereby having simulated a sample catalogue of ground motion for a period of 500 000 yr. We then used the synthesized ground motions rather than traditional attenuation relations for the PSHA.

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