Bayesian Inference in the Analysis of the Failure Risk of the Water Supply Network

Abstract One of the basic subsystems of the collective water supply system is the water distribution subsystem which has a direct impact on the reliability and safety of water supply to consumers. Failures of water pipes may cause water losses (leaks), interruptions in the water supply to consumers and can be the cause of secondary water pollution in the water supply network. It was proposed to use Bayesian inference to locate failures on the water supply network and to determine a posteriori probability of water network failure. It was found that the conditional probability of distribution water supply network failure is definitely higher than the conditional probability of home connections failure. The research results should be used by the water supply company during the development of an operational strategy for the renovation and modernization of the water supply network.