The Use of FE Model Updating and Probabilistic Analysis for Dealing with Uncertainty in Structural Dynamics Simulation

Finite element analysis has become an essential tool to support virtual product development. However, a lot of uncertainty exists in the modelling of physical structures, and in the effects on their performance of variability in manufacturing and usage of products. To successfully make the move to digital prototyping, and thereby reduce the number of physical prototypes, predictions of performance should be provided with a measure of confidence and validated against experimental data. This requires quantifying the physical and numerical uncertainty. Current FE model validation and updating practice is based on nominal values for input parameters and test results. The consequences of using random updating parameters that represent uncertainty and statistical test data are described. Scenarios for how to incorporate probabilistic simulation tools like Monte Carlo Simulation in model validation and updating procedures are outlined.