Scenario Development using Computer-Aided Morphological Analysis

Morphological analysis (MA) is a non-quantified modelling method for structuring and analysing technical, organisational and social problem complexes. It is well suited for developing scenarios, and the method is highly appropriate for complex cases where expertise from several areas needs to be involved. Using MA for problem solving or scenario generation typically involves workshop sessions supported by a computer tool. The Casper (Computer Aided Scenario and Problem Evaluation Routine) computer tool was developed at the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) by Dr. Tom Ritchey in order to support MA work. As an example of how MA is used, the development of a set of scenarios will be discussed. The scenarios were developed for the Swedish Armed Forces’ long-term planning and describe a number of long-term strategic situations, including peace support operations.