Quantifying chromosomal instability from intratumoral karyotype diversity using agent-based modeling and Bayesian inference

Chromosomal instability (CIN) — persistent chromosome gain or loss through abnormal karyokinesis — is a hallmark of cancer that drives aneuploidy. Intrinsic chromosome mis-segregation rates, a measure of CIN, can inform prognosis and are a likely biomarker for response to anti-microtubule agents. However, existing methodologies to measure this rate are labor intensive, indirect, and confounded by karyotype selection reducing observable diversity. We developed a framework to simulate and measure CIN, accounting for karyotype selection, and recapitulated karyotype-level clonality in simulated populations. We leveraged approximate Bayesian computation using phylogenetic topology and diversity to infer mis-segregation rates and karyotype selection from single-cell DNA sequencing data. Experimental validation of this approach revealed extensive chromosome mis-segregation rates caused by the chemotherapy paclitaxel (17.5±0.14/division). Extending this approach to clinical samples revealed the inferred rates fell within direct observations of cancer cell lines. This work provides the necessary framework to quantify CIN in human tumors and develop it as a predictive biomarker.