Comprehensive Risk Management using Fuzzy FMEA and MCDA Techniques in Highway Construction Projects

AbstractThis paper presents a comprehensive framework to manage the main risk events of highway construction projects within three stages: (1) identification of potential risks; (2) assessment and prioritisation of identified risks based on fuzzy FMEA; (3) identification of appropriate response. The main criteria analysed for prioritising potential risk events are cost, time and quality which are quantified and combined using fuzzy AHP. A new expert system is suggested for identifying an appropriate risk response strategy for a risk event based on risk factor, control number and risk allocation. The best response action for a risk event is then identified with respect to the same criteria using “scope expected deviation” (SED) index. The proposed methodology is demonstrated for management of risk events in a construction project of Bijar-Zanjan highway in Iran. For the risk event of “increase in tar price”, deviation from the target values of the criteria is analysed for business-as-usual state plus two r...

[1]  Lukas Ferkl,et al.  Probabilistic risk assessment of highway tunnels , 2011 .

[2]  Tarek Zayed,et al.  Assessing risk and uncertainty inherent in Chinese highway projects using AHP , 2008 .

[3]  C. Sheu,et al.  Choosing a project risk-handling strategy: An analytical model , 2008 .

[4]  I. Asi,et al.  OPTIMIZATION OF ROLLER-COMPACTED CONCRETE FOR LOCAL APPLICATION , 1994 .

[5]  Abbas Rashidi,et al.  An automated procedure for selecting project managers in construction firms , 2013 .

[6]  Siamak Noori,et al.  An Integrated Methodology for Assessment and Selection of the Project Risk Response Actions , 2009, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[7]  Aminah Robinson Fayek,et al.  Risk Management in the Construction Industry Using Combined Fuzzy FMEA and Fuzzy AHP , 2010 .

[8]  Edmundas Kazimieras Zavadskas,et al.  Risk assessment of construction projects , 2010 .

[9]  Stephen Grey,et al.  Project Risk Management Guidelines: Managing Risk in Large Projects and Complex Procurements , 2004 .

[10]  Raufdeen Rameezdeen,et al.  Risk management in road construction: The case of Sri Lanka , 2009 .

[11]  Remi Jouandou,et al.  Dealing with Uncertainty: Selecting a Risk-Analysis Tool on the Basis of Project Characteristics and Phases , 2010 .

[12]  M J Maher,et al.  Risk-based cost and schedule estimation for large transportation projects , 2006 .

[13]  Aminah Robinson Fayek,et al.  Fuzzy Reliability Analyzer: Quantitative Assessment of Risk Events in the Construction Industry Using Fuzzy Fault-Tree Analysis , 2011 .

[14]  Ming-Teh Wang,et al.  Risk Allocation and Risk Handling of Highway Projects in Taiwan , 2003 .

[15]  Abbas Rashidi,et al.  Selection of Project Managers in Construction Firm s Using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Topsis: A Case Study , 2011 .

[16]  Keith R. Molenaar,et al.  Risk Assessment and Allocation for Highway Construction Management , 2006 .

[17]  Donald D. Tippett,et al.  Project Risk Management Using the Project Risk FMEA , 2004 .

[18]  Ibrahim Mahamid,et al.  Risk matrix for factors affecting time delay in road construction projects: owners' perspective , 2011 .

[19]  Johnny Wong,et al.  Evaluation of Risk Factors Leading to Cost Overrun in Delivery of Highway Construction Projects , 2010 .

[20]  Keith R. Molenaar,et al.  A Risk-Based Approach to Contingency Estimation in Highway Project Development , 2009 .

[21]  A. P. Sant’Anna.  Probabilistic priority numbers for failure modes and effects analysis , 2012 .

[22]  Ioannis Brilakis,et al.  Neurofuzzy Genetic System for Selection of Construction Project Managers , 2011 .

[23]  Abdollah Ardeshir,et al.  Selection of a Bridge Construction Site Using Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process in Geographic Information System , 2014 .

[24]  Khaled Nassar,et al.  Evaluating Cost Overruns of Asphalt Paving Project using Statistical Process Control Methods , 2005 .

[25]  Thomas L. Saaty,et al.  Decision Making for Leaders: The Analytical Hierarchy Process for Decisions in a Complex World , 1982 .