Toward a general theory of climate behavior based on the viewpoint of systems theory

The construction of a qualitative theory of climate change based on systems theory is discussed. Specifically, the importance of initial conditions, nonlinearities, feedback mechanisms, forcing functions and stability concepts, as they pertain to the climatic behavior of the Earth are shown. Suggestions regarding areas of prime importance are advanced and feedback mechanisms are identified. The paper serves three goals: (1) provides a first approximation qualitative model outline, useful for subsequent quantitative calculations regarding climate change, (2) introduces systems theorists to the subject of climate, and (3) summarizes current literature in the field of climate behavior, its modification and simulation. A first-approximation, quantitative model based on the principles discussed in this paper will be the subject of a second paper.

[1]  G. Plass,et al.  Radiative transfer in an atmosphere-ocean system. , 1969, Applied optics.

[2]  J. Warner,et al.  Comparison of Measurements of Cloud Droplets and Cloud Nuclei , 1967 .

[3]  F. Möller.  On the influence of changes in the CO2 concentration in air on the radiation balance of the Earth's surface and on the climate , 1963 .

[4]  T. Seliga,et al.  Atmospheric Turbidity and Surface Temperature on the Polar Ice Sheets , 1972, Nature.

[5]  J. M. Mitchell,et al.  A Preliminary Evaluation of Atmospheric Pollution as a Cause of the Global Temperature Fluctuation of the Past Century , 1970 .

[6]  L. Kaplan.  The Influence of Carbon Dioxide Variations on the Atmospheric Heat Balance , 1960 .

[7]  G. Plass.  THE INFLUENCE OF INFRARED ABSORPTIVE MOLECULES ON THE CLIMATE , 1961 .

[8]  T. H. Haar,et al.  Measurements of the Earth's Radiation Budget from Satellites During a Five-Year Period. Part I: Extended Time and Space Means , 1971 .

[9]  W. Donn,et al.  The Heat Budgets of an Ice-Free and an Ice-Covered , 1966 .

[10]  J. Bricard,et al.  Formation and evolution of nuclei of condensation that appear in air initially free of aerosols , 1968 .

[11]  K. Bullrich,et al.  Scattered Radiation in the Atmosphere and the Natural Aerosol , 1964 .

[12]  M. Budyko.  The effect of solar radiation variations on the climate of the Earth , 1969 .

[13]  B. Haurwitz,et al.  INSOLATION IN RELATION TO CLOUD TYPE , 1946 .

[14]  M. A. Atwater.  Planetary Albedo Changes Due to Aerosols , 1970, Science.

[15]  R. Eiden.  The elliptical polarization of light scattered by a volume of atmospheric air. , 1966, Applied optics.

[16]  L. Eberhardt.  Restoring the Quality of Our Environment , 1967 .

[17]  J. Fletcher.  Polar Ice and the Global Climate Machine , 1970 .

[18]  G. S. Callendar.  Temperature fluctuations and trends over the earth , 1961 .

[19]  Norman A. Phillips,et al.  The general circulation of the atmosphere: A numerical experiment , 1956 .

[20]  B. Bolin,et al.  Global air pollution--meteorological aspects. A survey. , 1971, Atmospheric environment.

[21]  J. Curray,et al.  Carbon-14 determination of sea level changes in stable areas , 1965 .

[22]  S. Manabe,et al.  Climate Calculations with a Combined Ocean-Atmosphere Model , 1969 .

[23]  B. Bolin,et al.  Variations of the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere in the northern hemisphere , 1970 .

[24]  H. Landsberg.  Man-Made Climatic Changes , 1970, Science.

[25]  C. Emiliani.  Paleotemperature Analysis of Caribbean Cores P6304-8 and P6304-9 and a Generalized Temperature Curve for the past 425,000 Years , 1966, The Journal of Geology.

[26]  Edward N. Lorenz,et al.  Climatic Change as a Mathematical Problem , 1970 .

[27]  G. Plass,et al.  Influence of aerosols, clouds, and molecular absorption on atmospheric emission , 1971 .

[28]  Syukuro Manabe,et al.  Thermal Equilibrium of the Atmosphere with a Given Distribution of Relative Humidity , 1967 .

[29]  G. D. Robinson.  Some observations from aircraft of surface albedo and the albedo and absorption of cloud , 1958 .

[30]  D. Heath.  Observations of the Intensity and Variability of the Near Ultraviolet Solar Flux from the Nimbus III Satellite , 1969 .

[31]  C. Junge,et al.  THE SIZE DISTRIBUTION AND AGING OF NATURAL AEROSOLS AS DETERMINED FROM ELECTRICAL AND OPTICAL DATA ON THE ATMOSPHERE , 1955 .

[32]  S. Greenfield,et al.  RAIN SCAVENGING OF RADIOACTIVE PARTICULATE MATTER FROM THE ATMOSPHERE , 1957 .

[33]  E. Raschke,et al.  The Radiation Balance of the Planet Earth from Radiation Measurements of the Satellite Nimbus II. , 1970 .

[34]  G. S. Johnson,et al.  Regulation of Cell Motility by Cyclic AMP , 1972, Nature.

[35]  C. Bergh,et al.  The Runaway Greenhouse and the Accumulation of CO2 in the Venus Atmosphere , 1970, Nature.

[36]  H. Lamb,et al.  Volcanic dust in the atmosphere; with a chronology and assessment of its meteorological significance , 1970, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A, Mathematical and Physical Sciences.

[37]  R. F. Strickler,et al.  EXPERIMENTAL EXTENDED PREDICTIONS WITH A NINE-LEVEL HEMISPHERIC MODEL , 1969 .

[38]  M. Hubbert,et al.  The Energy Resources of The Earth , 1971 .

[39]  H. Quenzel,et al.  Determination of size distribution of atmospheric aerosol particles from spectral solar radiation measurements , 1970 .

[40]  Carbon dioxide and climate. , 1959 .

[41]  B. Oddie.  The chemical composition of precipitation at cloud levels , 1962 .

[42]  R. E. Danielson,et al.  The Transfer of Visible Radiation through Clouds , 1969 .

[43]  J. Hansen.  Exact and Approximate Solutions for Multiple Scattering by Cloudy and Hazy Planetary Atmospheres , 1969 .

[44]  B. Frenzel.  Die Klimaschwankungen des Eiszeitalters , 1967 .

[45]  J. Smagorinsky,et al.  GENERAL CIRCULATION EXPERIMENTS WITH THE PRIMITIVE EQUATIONS , 1963 .

[46]  D. Mckinnon,et al.  Water Vapor Distribution in the Lower Stratosphere over North and South America , 1970 .

[47]  G. Yamamoto,et al.  Determination of aerosol size distribution from spectral attenuation measurements. , 1969, Applied optics.

[48]  J. Kanwisher.  pCO 2 in Sea Water and its Effect on the Movement of CO 2 in Nature , 1960 .

[49]  H. Weickmann,et al.  High Altitude Radiometric Measurements of Cirrus , 1969 .

[50]  Reid A. Bryson,et al.  possibilities of major climatic modification and their implications: Northwest India, a case for study1 , 1967 .

[51]  E. Eriksson.  POSSIBLE FLUCTUATIONS IN ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE DUE TO CHANGES IN THE PROPERTIES OF THE SEA , 1963 .

[52]  S. Manabe.  CLIMATE AND THE OCEAN CIRCULATION1 , 1969 .

[53]  S. Schneider,et al.  A Comment on “Climate: The Influence of Aerosols” , 1971 .

[54]  J. Mitchell.  RECENT SECULAR CHANGES OF GLOBAL TEMPERATURE , 1961 .

[55]  William D. Sellers,et al.  A Global Climatic Model Based on the Energy Balance of the Earth-Atmosphere System. , 1969 .

[56]  C. D. Keeling,et al.  Large‐scale atmospheric mixing as deduced from the seasonal and meridional variations of carbon dioxide , 1963 .

[57]  S. Schneider,et al.  Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Aerosols: Effects of Large Increases on Global Climate , 1971, Science.

[58]  Syukuro Manabe,et al.  SIMULATION OF CLIMATE BY A GLOBAL GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL , 1971 .

[59]  Wallace S. Broecker,et al.  Insolation changes, ice volumes, and the O18 record in deep‐sea cores , 1970 .

[60]  W. F. Libby,et al.  Equilibration of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide with Sea Water: Possible Enzymatic Control of the Rate , 1969, Science.

[61]  J. M. Mitchell,et al.  The Effect of Atmospheric Aerosols on Climate with Special Reference to Temperature near the Earth's Surface. , 1971 .

[62]  Y. Kurihara,et al.  NUMERICAL INTEGRATION OF A NINE-LEVEL GLOBAL PRIMITIVE EQUATIONS MODEL FORMULATED BY THE BOX METHOD , 1967 .