Modeling complex systems of systems with Phantom System Models

Complex systems are commonly composed of interconnected and inter‐ and intradependent subsystems, which in their essence constitute systems of systems with multiple functions, operations, and stakeholders. Phantom System Models (PSM) is a modeling methodology inspired by philosophical and conceptual thinking from the arts, and is driven and supported by systems engineering theory, methodology, and practice. The PSM is designed to model inter‐ and intradependencies between and among the subsystems of a complex system of systems by exploiting vital knowledge and information embedded in the intrinsic and extrinsic common and uncommon state variables among the subsystems. Among the several systems engineering theories and methodologies, the PSM in particular builds on the centrality of the states of the system in modeling and in risk analysis; fundamentals in system identification (the inverse problem); hierarchical holographic modeling; coordinated hierarchical Bayesian model; and hierarchical decomposition and higher‐level coordination. An example problem of a PSM‐based modeling of a prototype system of systems is presented. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Syst Eng

[1]  G. Dantzig,et al.  THE DECOMPOSITION ALGORITHM FOR LINEAR PROGRAMS , 1961 .

[2]  W. Gordon.  Synectics: The Development of Creative Capacity , 1961 .

[3]  L. Lasdon,et al.  A multi-level technique for optimization , 1965 .

[4]  C. Leondes,et al.  Advances in Control Systems , 1966 .

[5]  E. J. Bauman,et al.  Multilevel Optimization Techniques with Application to Trajectory Decomposition , 1968 .

[6]  M. Mesarovic,et al.  Theory of Hierarchical, Multilevel, Systems , 1970 .

[7]  Leon S. Lasdon,et al.  Optimization Theory of Large Systems , 1970 .

[8]  David A. Wismer,et al.  Optimization methods for large-scale systems ... with applications , 1971 .

[9]  Yacov Y. Haimes,et al.  Hierarchical structures in water resources systems management , 1972 .

[10]  P. Eykhoff.  System Identification Parameter and State Estimation , 1974 .

[11]  Yacov Y. Haimes,et al.  Hierarchical modeling of regional total water resources systems , 1975, Autom..

[12]  Yacov Y. Haimes.  Hierarchical Modeling for the Planning and Management of a Total Regional Water Resource System : Joint Consideration of the Supply and Quality of Ground and Surface Water Resources , 1976 .

[13]  Yacov Y. Haimes,et al.  Hierarchical analyses of water resources systems : modeling and optimization of large-scale systems , 1977 .

[14]  I. V. Blauberg,et al.  Systems theory : philosophical and methodological problems , 1977 .

[15]  Y.Y. Haimes,et al.  Methodology for large-scale systems , 1978, Proceedings of the IEEE.

[16]  Daniel Graupe,et al.  Identification of Systems , 1978, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics.

[17]  G. Apostolakis.  Bayesian Methods in Risk Assessment , 1981 .

[18]  Yacov Y. Haimes,et al.  Hierarchical Holographic Modeling , 1981, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics.

[19]  John S. Edwards.  Applied Systems Engineering , 1981 .

[20]  K. Tarvainen,et al.  Hierarchical-Multiobjective Framework for Energy Storage Systems , 1981 .

[21]  Bernard P. Zeigler,et al.  Multifacetted Modelling and Discrete Event Simulation , 1984 .

[22]  Madan Singh.  System and control encyclopedia: theory, technology, applications , 1986 .

[23]  M E Paté-Cornell,et al.  Organizational aspects of engineering system safety: the case of offshore platforms. , 1990, Science.

[24]  Yacov Y. Haimes,et al.  Hierarchical Multiobjective Analysis of Large-Scale Systems , 1990 .

[25]  R. M. Dudley,et al.  Influence Diagrams, Belief Nets and Decision Analysis. , 1991 .

[26]  R. M. Oliver,et al.  Influence diagrams, belief nets and decision analysis , 1992 .

[27]  John Q. Dickmann,et al.  Complexity of Military Conflict : Multiscale Complex Systems Analysis of Littoral Warfare , 1992 .

[28]  Malay Ghosh,et al.  Small Area Estimation: An Appraisal , 1994 .

[29]  Chi-Tsong Chen,et al.  Linear System Theory and Design , 1995 .

[30]  Andrew P. Sage,et al.  Systems Management for Information Technology and Software Engineering , 1995 .

[31]  M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell,et al.  Uncertainties in risk analysis: Six levels of treatment , 1996 .

[32]  Thomas J. Tomberlin,et al.  EMPIRICAL BAYES ESTIMATORS OF SMALL AREA PROPORTIONS IN MULTISTAGE DESIGNS , 1997 .

[33]  Mike Mannion,et al.  Complex systems , 1997, Proceedings International Conference and Workshop on Engineering of Computer-Based Systems.

[34]  Malay Ghosh,et al.  Bayesian Methods for Finite Population Sampling , 1997 .

[35]  Mark W. Maier,et al.  Architecting Principles for Systems‐of‐Systems , 1996 .

[36]  Scott E. Page.  Computational models from A to Z , 1999, Complex..

[37]  Shin Ta Liu,et al.  Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management , 1999, Technometrics.

[38]  T. Louis,et al.  Empirical Bayes: Past, Present and Future , 2000 .

[39]  E. Atlee Jackson,et al.  The unbounded vistas of science: Evolutionary limitations , 2000, Complex..

[40]  Andrew P. Sage,et al.  On the Systems Engineering and Management of Systems of Systems and Federations of Systems , 2001, Inf. Knowl. Syst. Manag..

[41]  Alexander Kossiakoff,et al.  Systems Engineering Principles and Practice , 2020 .

[42]  Seth Lloyd.  Bits and Bucks: Modeling complex systems by information flow , 2002 .

[43]  Yaneer Bar-Yam,et al.  When systems engineering fails-toward complex systems engineering , 2003, SMC'03 Conference Proceedings. 2003 IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man and Cybernetics. Conference Theme - System Security and Assurance (Cat. No.03CH37483).

[44]  F. Funderburk.  System Models of Organizational Behavior Organizational Culture from a Complex Dynamic Systems Perspective : Moving from Metaphor to Action in Healthcare , 2004 .

[45]  Renato M Assunção,et al.  Multiple cancer sites incidence rates estimation using a multivariate Bayesian model. , 2004, International journal of epidemiology.

[46]  Julio M. Ottino,et al.  Complex networks , 2004, Encyclopedia of Big Data.

[47]  Alexander Kossiakoff,et al.  Systems Engineering Principles and Practice: Kossiakoff/Systems Engineering Principles and Practice , 2005 .

[48]  D. Guyonnet,et al.  Bayesian methods in risk assessment , 2005 .

[49]  Myong-Hun Chang,et al.  AGENT-BASED MODELS OF ORGANIZATIONS * , 2006 .

[50]  Cosma Rohilla Shalizi,et al.  Methods and Techniques of Complex Systems Science: An Overview , 2003, nlin/0307015.

[51]  James H. Lambert,et al.  Assembling off-the-shelf components: "Learn as you Go" systems engineering , 2006, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics - Part A: Systems and Humans.

[52]  Christopher W. Johnson,et al.  What are emergent properties and how do they affect the engineering of complex systems? , 2006, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[53]  Andrew P. Sage,et al.  Processes for System Family Architecting, Design, and Integration , 2007, IEEE Systems Journal.

[54]  Yacov Y. Haimes,et al.  Phantom System Models for Emergent Multiscale Systems , 2007 .

[55]  Brian F. Tivnan,et al.  Modeling organizational adaptation: A replication of Levinthal’s model of emergent order , 2007, 2007 Winter Simulation Conference.

[56]  Mohammad Jamshidi,et al.  System of systems engineering : innovations for the 21st century , 2008 .

[57]  Yacov Y. Haimes.  Models for risk management of systems of systems , 2008, Int. J. Syst. Syst. Eng..

[58]  Yacov Y Haimes,et al.  On the Complex Definition of Risk: A Systems‐Based Approach , 2009, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[59]  John K Kruschke,et al.  Bayesian data analysis. , 2010, Wiley interdisciplinary reviews. Cognitive science.

[60]  Yacov Y. Haimes,et al.  Cross-classified hierarchical Bayesian models for risk-based analysis of complex systems under sparse data , 2010, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[61]  Andrew P. Sage,et al.  Handbook of Systems Engineering and Management , 2011 .