Optimal reserve selection in a dynamic world

In this paper we present a novel expansion of the problem of optimal reserve site selection over time. We explore a case where areas with valuable biodiversity cannot all be protected immediately due to budget restrictions and there is a probability of species extinction on reserved as well as non-reserved sites. Add to this the risk of land-use conversion facing all non-reserved areas. We furthermore introduce a new type of control by making the planning authorities have the option to sell reserved land on which biodiversity value has decreased. We formulate and solve this problem through stochastic dynamic integer-programming. The current study shows that, due to the dynamic and stochastic nature of biodiversity evolution, the inclusion of a swapping option may increase overall efficiency. Finally, we test a number of decision criteria (heuristics) to investigate alternatives to the cumbersome task of determining the true optimum.

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