Detection of rain-on-snow (ROS) events and ice layer formation using passive microwave radiometry: A context for Peary caribou habitat in the Canadian Arctic

Abstract Over the past four decades, amplified warming in the Arctic has led to numerous consequences. Of particular relevance, negative anomalies of snow and sea ice cover, glacier retreat, and the extended melt of Greenland combined with increasing temperature at double the rate of the rest of the planet have been observed in the Arctic. Several studies have suggested that another response to the current arctic warming could be an increase in rain-on-snow (ROS) events followed by subsequent freezing and the creation of ice layers. We use recently developed detection algorithms of ROS and ice events using passive microwave retrieval approaches to examine the spatial and temporal trends in rain-on-snow and ice layer creation for 18 islands across the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) over the last two decades. Results show that both icing and ROS event occurrence tripled between the periods of 1979–1995 and 1996–2011, with very active years in winters 1993–1994, 1998–1999 and 2002–2003. The areas with the most combined occurrences are the Boothia Peninsula and Axel Heiberg, Cornwallis, Banks and Victoria Islands. We then compare the rain-on-snow and icing events to Peary caribou estimates to test whether the algorithms can detect weather events associated with population declines. There has been an important reduction in population numbers of Peary caribou, the northernmost caribou population in Canada, over the last three generations. The major hypothesis for the decline is that severe weather events lead to more difficult winter grazing conditions. The comparison with the Peary caribou population estimates suggest that caribou numbers decrease with increased occurrence of ROS and icing events, where 3–4 ROS events and 1–2 icing events in one winter season are sufficient to have a negative impact on Peary caribou.

[1]  Alexandre Langlois,et al.  Development of a rain‐on‐snow detection algorithm using passive microwave radiometry , 2016 .

[2]  Spatialization of the SNOWPACK Snow Model in the Canadian Arctic for Peary Caribou Winter Grazing conditions Assessment , 2022 .

[3]  F. Miller,et al.  Sea-ice crossings by caribou in the south-central Canadian Arctic Archipelago and their ecological importance , 2005 .

[4]  D. Barber,et al.  Estimation of snow water equivalent over first-year sea ice using AMSR-E and surface observations , 2008 .

[5]  Cecilia M. Bitz,et al.  Soil Thermal and Ecological Impacts of Rain on Snow Events in the Circumpolar Arctic , 2009 .

[6]  Hans J. Liebe,et al.  MPM—An atmospheric millimeter-wave propagation model , 1989 .

[7]  David B. Dunson,et al.  Bayesian Data Analysis , 2010 .

[8]  P. Jones,et al.  Hemispheric and large-scale land-surface air temperature variations: An extensive revision and an update to 2010: LAND-SURFACE TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS , 2012 .

[9]  Gene E. Likens,et al.  Trends in stream nitrogen concentrations for forested reference catchments across the USA , 2013 .

[10]  M. Holland,et al.  The emergence of surface-based Arctic amplification , 2008 .

[11]  J. Kohler,et al.  Effect of Winter Snow and Ground-Icing on a Svalbard Reindeer Population: Results of a Simple Snowpack Model , 2004 .

[12]  Alexandre Roy,et al.  Snow Microwave Emission Modeling of Ice Lenses Within a Snowpack Using the Microwave Emission Model for Layered Snowpacks , 2013, IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing.

[13]  G. Jolly.  Sampling Methods for Aerial Censuses of Wildlife Populations , 1969 .

[14]  Peter Toose,et al.  Physical properties of Arctic versus subarctic snow: Implications for high latitude passive microwave snow water equivalent retrievals , 2014 .

[15]  Chris Derksen,et al.  Spring snow cover extent reductions in the 2008–2012 period exceeding climate model projections , 2012 .

[16]  A. Gunn,et al.  Catastrophic Die-Off of Peary Caribou on the Western Queen Elizabeth Islands, Canadian High Arctic , 2003 .

[17]  R. Russell,et al.  Interisland movements of Peary caribou (Rangifer tarandus pearyi) on western Queen Elizabeth Islands, Arctic Canada , 1977 .

[18]  Christopher A. Hiemstra,et al.  The Changing Cryosphere: Pan-Arctic Snow Trends (1979–2009) , 2011 .

[19]  S. Buckland.  Introduction to distance sampling : estimating abundance of biological populations , 2001 .

[20]  B. MONTPETIT,et al.  Snow Microwave Emission Modeling of Ice Lenses within the Snowpack Using the Microwave Emission Model for Layered Snowpacks (MEMLS) , 2013 .

[21]  Martti Hallikainen,et al.  HUT snow emission model and its applicability to snow water equivalent retrieval , 1999, IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote. Sens..

[22]  M. Boyce,et al.  Global declines of caribou and reindeer , 2009 .

[23]  C. Krebs.  Ecology: The Experimental Analysis of Distribution and Abundance , 1973 .

[24]  G. Roberts,et al.  Adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo through Regeneration , 1998 .

[25]  Annett Bartsch,et al.  Early snowmelt events: detection, distribution, and significance in a major sub-arctic watershed , 2013 .

[26]  E. Berthier,et al.  Area, elevation and mass changes of the two southernmost ice caps of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago between 1952 and 2014 , 2015 .

[27]  Jean-Pierre Wigneron,et al.  A simple parameterization for a boreal forest radiative transfer model at microwave frequencies , 2012 .

[28]  B. Sæther,et al.  Fluctuations of an introduced population of Svalbard reindeer: the effects of density dependence and climatic variation , 2000 .

[29]  J. Nagy,et al.  Seasonal and annual variability in the quality of important forage plants on Banks Island, Canadian High Arctic , 2001 .

[30]  Michael Steele,et al.  Arctic Ocean surface warming trends over the past 100 years , 2008 .

[31]  Benoît Montpetit,et al.  Analyse de la modélisation de l'émission multi-fréquences micro-onde des sols et de la neige, incluant les croutes de glace à l'aide du modèle Microwave Emission Model of Layered Snowpacks (MEMLS). , 2015 .

[32]  A. Wiesmann,et al.  Microwave Emission Model of Layered Snowpacks , 1999 .

[33]  R. Barry,et al.  Processes and impacts of Arctic amplification: A research synthesis , 2011 .

[34]  Vladimir E. Romanovsky,et al.  Permafrost thermal state in the polar Northern Hemisphere during the international polar year 2007–2009: a synthesis , 2010 .

[35]  Bernd Etzelmüller,et al.  Recent advances in permafrost modelling , 2008 .

[36]  Chris Derksen,et al.  Observed and modelled effects of ice lens formation on passive microwave brightness temperatures over snow covered tundra , 2010 .

[37]  P. Jones,et al.  Hemispheric and Large-Scale Surface Air Temperature Variations: An Extensive Revision and an Update to 2001. , 2003 .

[38]  R. Pachauri,et al.  Climate change 2014 : synthesis report : A report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2014 .

[39]  David D. Parrish,et al.  NORTH AMERICAN REGIONAL REANALYSIS , 2006 .

[40]  M. Holland,et al.  Abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age triggered by volcanism and sustained by sea‐ice/ocean feedbacks , 2012 .

[41]  Kurt Roth,et al.  Modeling the thermal dynamics of the active layer at two contrasting permafrost sites on Svalbard and on the Tibetan Plateau , 2011 .

[42]  Jeffrey R. Key,et al.  A cloudier Arctic expected with diminishing sea ice , 2012 .

[43]  Claire L. Parkinson,et al.  Global Sea Ice Coverage from Satellite Data: Annual Cycle and 35-Yr Trends , 2014 .

[44]  A. Mysterud,et al.  Icing events trigger range displacement in a high-arctic ungulate. , 2010, Ecology.

[45]  G. Roe,et al.  Rain‐on‐snow events impact soil temperatures and affect ungulate survival , 2003 .

[46]  M. Winton,et al.  Does the Arctic sea ice have a tipping point? , 2006 .

[47]  J. Putkonen,et al.  A method for the detection of the severe rain‐on‐snow event on Banks Island, October 2003, using passive microwave remote sensing , 2008 .