ROAD MORTALITY IN EUROPE – How Sensitive Is It to Demographic Structure and Population Dynamics? –

This paper examines the influence that demographic differences may have on the level of road safety, as measured by mortality risk. Using data from 23 European countries, standardized mortality rations (SMRs) for the International Road Traffic Accidents Database (IRTAD) age groups were computed from fatality counts from 2002 and were compared with crude mortality rates. The paper also looks at how changes in population structure might affect road fatality records in the future. The authors conclude that while aging could have a major impact on some countries, the aging of the population in general, along with changes in the total population, will result in only minor changes in the expected number of European road fatalities.

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