Using artificial intelligence to predict permeability from petrographic data

Abstract Petrographic data collected during thin section analysis can be invaluable for understanding the factors that control permeability distribution. Reliable prediction of permeability is important for reservoir characterization. The petrographic elements (mineralogy, porosity types, cements and clays, and pore morphology) interact with each other uniquely to generate a specific permeability distribution. It is difficult to quantify accurately this interaction and its consequent effect on permeability, emphasizing the non-linear nature of the process. To capture these non-linear interactions, neural networks were used to predict permeability from petrographic data. The neural net was used as a multivariate correlative tool because of its ability to learn the non-linear relationships between multiple input and output variables. The study was conducted on the upper Queen formation called the Shattuck Member (Permian age). The Shattuck Member is composed of very fine-grained arkosic sandstone. The core samples were available from the Sulimar Queen and South Lucky Lake fields located in Chaves County, New Mexico. Nineteen petrographic elements were collected for each permeability value using a combined minipermeameter–petrographic technique. In order to reduce noise and overfitting the permeability model, these petrographic elements were screened, and their control (ranking) with respect to permeability was determined using fuzzy logic. Since the fuzzy logic algorithm provides unbiased ranking, it was used to reduce the dimensionality of the input variables. Based on the fuzzy logic ranking, only the most influential petrographic elements were selected as inputs for permeability prediction. The neural net was trained and tested using data from Well 1–16 in the Sulimar Queen field. Relying on the ranking obtained from the fuzzy logic analysis, the net was trained using the most influential three, five, and ten petrographic elements. A fast algorithm (the scaled conjugate gradient method) was used to optimize the network weight matrix. The net was then successfully used to predict the permeability in the nearby South Lucky Lake field, also in the Shattuck Member. This study underscored various important aspects of using neural networks as non-linear estimators. The neural network learnt the complex relationships between petrographic control and permeability. By predicting permeability in a remotely-located, yet geologically similar field, the generalizing capability of the neural network was also demonstrated. In old fields, where conventional petrographic analysis was routine, this technique may be used to supplement core permeability estimates.