Flood Risk Management: US Army Corps of Engineers and Layperson Perceptions

Recent severe storm experiences in the U.S. Gulf Coast illustrate the importance of an integrated approach to flood preparedness planning that harmonizes stakeholder and agency efforts. Risk management decisions that are informed by and address decision maker and stakeholder risk perceptions and behavior are essential for effective risk management policy. A literature review and two expert models/mental models studies were undertaken to identify areas of importance in the flood risk management process for layperson, non-USACE-expert, and two USACE-expert groups. In characterizing and mapping stakeholder beliefs about risks in the literature onto current risk management practice, recommendations for accommodating and changing stakeholder perceptions of flood risks and their management are identified. Needs of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) flood preparedness and response program are discussed in the context of flood risk mental models.

[1]  G. Fleming How can we learn to live with rivers? The findings of the Institution of Civil Engineers Presidential Commission on flood-risk management , 2002, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[2]  Patrick S. McCarthy,et al.  Evidence on risk compensation and safety behaviour , 1999 .

[3]  R. Pielke,et al.  Nine Fallacies of Floods , 1999 .

[4]  Igor Linkov,et al.  Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis: Environmental Applications and Case Studies , 2011 .

[5]  J. Buckland,et al.  Community-based disaster management during the 1997 Red River Flood in Canada. , 1999, Disasters.

[6]  G. Fleming Learning to live with rivers—the ICE's report to government , 2002 .

[7]  B. Cigler The “Big Questions” of Katrina and the 2005 Great Flood of New Orleans , 2007 .

[8]  Zeno Franco,et al.  The dirty dozen: twelve failures of the hurricane katrina response and how psychology can help. , 2007, American Psychologist.

[9]  Paul Slovic,et al.  Lay views on uncertainty in environmental health risk assessment , 1998 .

[10]  Eric A. Morris,et al.  Planning for Cars in Cities: Planners, Engineers, and Freeways in the 20th Century , 2009 .

[11]  B. Fischhoff,et al.  Parents' vaccination comprehension and decisions. , 2008, Vaccine.

[12]  Wayne J. Graham Should dams be modified for the probable maximum flood , 2000 .

[13]  Rien Kolkman,et al.  Controversies in water management: Frames and mental models , 2005 .

[14]  Craig H. Bishop,et al.  The Value of Hurricane Forecasts to Oil and Gas Producers in the Gulf of Mexico , 2004 .

[15]  B. Fischhoff,et al.  Lay Foibles and Expert Fables in Judgments about Risk , 1982 .

[16]  Robert C. Solomon,et al.  The Big Questions , 1982 .

[17]  M. Fischetti,et al.  Drowning New Orleans. , 2001, Scientific American.

[18]  M Granger Morgan,et al.  Initial public perceptions of deep geological and oceanic disposal of carbon dioxide. , 2004, Environmental science & technology.

[19]  P. Godfrey‐Smith On Folk Psychology and Mental Representation , 2004 .

[20]  Eva Regnier,et al.  A Dynamic Decision Model Applied to Hurricane Landfall , 2006 .

[21]  Ronald A. Howard,et al.  Influence Diagrams , 2005, Decis. Anal..

[22]  Sarah Thorne,et al.  Influences on Decision-Making for Undergoing Plastic Surgery: A Mental Models and Quantitative Assessment , 2005, Plastic and reconstructive surgery.

[23]  L B Lave,et al.  Public perception of the risks of floods: implications for communication. , 1991, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[24]  Claudia Pahl-Wostl,et al.  The Importance of Social Learning in Restoring the Multifunctionality of Rivers and Floodplains , 2006 .

[25]  David N. Ford,et al.  Mental models concepts revisited: some clarifications and a reply to Lane , 1999 .

[26]  C. Pahl-Wostl,et al.  The Implications of Complexity for Integrated Resources Management , 2004 .

[27]  Igor Linkov,et al.  A decision-directed approach for prioritizing research into the impact of nanomaterials on the environment and human health. , 2011, Nature nanotechnology.

[28]  M Granger Morgan,et al.  Now What Do People Know About Global Climate Change? Survey Studies of Educated Laypeople , 1994, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[29]  Wolfgang Haider,et al.  Floodplain Residents' Preferences for Non-Structural Flood Alleviation Measures in the Red River Basin, Manitoba, Canada , 2002 .

[30]  R. Hazen Life's rocky start. , 2001, Scientific American.

[31]  S. Tunstall,et al.  "I wish I'd never heard of Banbury": the relationship between 'place' and the health impacts from flooding. , 2008, Health & place.

[32]  Joanne Linnerooth-Bayer,et al.  Stakeholder Views on Flood Risk Management in Hungary's Upper Tisza Basin , 2003, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[33]  David N. Ford,et al.  Mental models concepts for system dynamics research , 1998 .

[34]  Baruch Fischhoff,et al.  Characterizing Mental Models of Hazardous Processes: A Methodology and an Application to Radon , 1992 .

[35]  Charles Yoe National Economic Development Procedures Manual - National Economic Development Costs , 1993 .

[36]  Keith Beven,et al.  Developing a Translational Discourse to Communicate Uncertainty in Flood Risk between Science and the Practitioner , 2007, Ambio.

[37]  I. Lorenzoni,et al.  Danger is all around: Eliciting expert perceptions for managing climate change through a mental models approach☆ , 2007 .

[38]  W. W. Viscusi The lulling effect: the impact of child-resistant packaging on aspirin and analgesic ingestions. , 1984, The American economic review.

[39]  M. G. Morgan,et al.  What Do People Know About Global Climate Change? 1. Mental Models , 1994 .

[40]  S. Peltzman The Effects of Automobile Safety Regulation , 1975, Journal of Political Economy.

[41]  M. Siegrist,et al.  Flooding Risks: A Comparison of Lay People's Perceptions and Expert's Assessments in Switzerland , 2006, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[42]  B. Johnson,et al.  Testing and Expanding a Model of Cognitive Processing of Risk Information , 2005, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[43]  Stephen D Hill,et al.  Understanding Managers’ Views of Global Environmental Risk , 2006, Environmental management.

[44]  Ronald D. Brunner,et al.  Context and climate change: an integrated assessment for Barrow, Alaska , 2007 .

[45]  J. Hoyer,et al.  Posttraumatic symptoms, depression, and anxiety of flood victims: The impact of the belief in a just world , 2006 .

[46]  D. E. Clark,et al.  Willingness to pay for flood and ecological risk reduction in an urban watershed. , 2002, Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research.

[47]  B. Fischhoff,et al.  Risk Communication: A Mental Models Approach , 2001 .

[48]  Igor Linkov,et al.  A Mental Modeling Approach to Study Decision‐Making in Dynamic Task Environments , 2010 .

[49]  Klaus Wagner,et al.  Mental Models of Flash Floods and Landslides , 2007, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.