Esboço da quantificação da fraude em Portugal

There is a set of factors (institutional, cultural, cognitive and others) which prevent a precise quantification of fraud in Portugal. However it is a social imperative and it is technically possible to get values which a low probability of error. We try to do it in this brief communication. To do this it we need to overcome the spontaneous concepts of fraud and find a definition which can be assumed as reference. The deception and to obtain advantages or to impose damage constitute indispensable elements, associated with the illegality or illegitimacy. Starting from this broad concept, knowing that the quantification adopt only certain types of fraud, we inventory some quantifications. After to get strict quantifications of fraud in other countries, and explanatory variables of the differences between countries of certain types of fraud and the Non-Observed Economy and after adopting certain assumptions is possible to extrapolate for our country. We estimate that the total fraud is ranging from 1,5 to 2.0% of national GDP and occupational fraud is 10% of gross revenues.

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