Intuition and Emotion in Bank Loan Officers' Credit Decisions

Within the framework of judgment and decision making (JDM), considerable progress has been made in research on how intuitions and emotions affect decision making. Much of this research has been conducted in experimental settings. The present paper reports findings from a naturalistic decision making (NDM) study of how loan officers' so-called gut feelings (emotionally laden intuitions) affect their credit decisions. In-depth interviews with 14 loan officers in a large commercial bank in Israel revealed that they construed credit applications as both a financial transaction and an interpersonal interaction. As a consequence, they integrated “hard” financial data regarding the soundness of the application with “soft” impressions and gut feelings regarding the credibility of the loan applicant. In the reasoning of loan officers, gut feelings were regarded as more valid indicators of the worthiness of the application than were the relevant financial data. Although loan officers regarded their gut feelings as semiarticulate, ill-understood intuitions, these can be traced to observable specifiable cues from clients' behavior.

[1]  R. Fisher,et al.  Memory-Enhancing Techniques for Investigative Interviewing: The Cognitive Interview , 1992 .

[2]  Hayashi Am,et al.  When to trust your gut. , 2001 .

[3]  Lisa A. Burke,et al.  Taking the mystery out of intuitive decision making , 1999 .

[4]  R. Lowenstein,et al.  Buffett: The Making of an American Capitalist , 1995 .

[5]  D. Myers Intuition: Its Powers and Perils , 2002 .

[6]  Jacob Cohen A Coefficient of Agreement for Nominal Scales , 1960 .

[7]  Ramon J. Aldag,et al.  Decision Making: A Psychological Analysis of Conflict , 1980 .

[8]  Robin M. Hogarth,et al.  Judgmental Versus Statistical Prediction: Information Asymmetry and Combination Rules , 1993 .

[9]  W. Agor,et al.  The Logic of Intuitive Decision Making: A Research-Based Approach for Top Management , 1986 .

[10]  D. Isenberg Decision Making: HOW SENIOR MANAGERS THINK , 1988 .

[11]  Blake E. Ashforth,et al.  Emotion in the Workplace: A Reappraisal , 1995 .

[12]  Sigal G. Barsade,et al.  Escalation at the Credit Window: A Longitudinal Study of Bank Executives' Recognition and Write-Off of Problem Loans , 1997 .

[13]  A. Isen,et al.  The effect of positive feelings on risk taking: When the chips are down. , 1983 .

[14]  Dennis K. Mumby,et al.  Organizations, emotion and the myth of rationality. , 1993 .

[15]  Marvin S. Cohen,et al.  Metarecognition in Time-Stressed Decision Making: Recognizing, Critiquing, and Correcting , 1996, Hum. Factors.

[16]  D. Kahneman,et al.  Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment , 2002 .

[17]  Gary Klein,et al.  Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions , 2017 .

[18]  B. Burns The Effects of Speed on Skilled Chess Performance , 2004, Psychological science.

[19]  I. Ritov,et al.  Decision Affect Theory: Emotional Reactions to the Outcomes of Risky Options , 1997 .

[20]  L. Jette [Human relations]. , 1966, Bulletin des infirmieres catholiques du Canada.

[21]  A. Tversky,et al.  Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , 1974, Science.

[22]  R. Lipshitz,et al.  Coping with Uncertainty: A Naturalistic Decision-Making Analysis , 1997 .

[23]  Charles J. Wheelan Naked Economics: Undressing the Dismal Science , 2002 .

[24]  I. Janis,et al.  Decision Making: A Psychological Analysis of Conflict, Choice, and Commitment , 1977 .

[25]  Jared Freeman,et al.  Metarecognition in Time-Stressed Decision Making: Recognizing, Critiquing, and Correcting , 1996, Hum. Factors.

[26]  Jean C. Bedard,et al.  Lenders' Decision Strategies and Loan Structure Decisions , 1999 .

[27]  W. Agor The logic of intuition: How top executives make important decisions , 1986 .

[28]  Jim Q. Smith,et al.  Image Theory: Decision Making in Personal and Organizational Contexts. , 1991 .

[29]  Philip Bromiley,et al.  Risk and Return in Organizational Decision Making , 1999 .

[30]  Raanan Lipshitz,et al.  How professionals make decisions. , 2004 .

[31]  Philip Bromiley,et al.  DECISION MAKING IN AN ORGANIZATIONAL SETTING: COGNITIVE AND ORGANIZATIONAL INFLUENCES ON RISK ASSESSMENT IN COMMERCIAL LENDING , 1997 .

[32]  W. Firestone Alternative Arguments for Generalizing From Data as Applied to Qualitative Research , 1993 .

[33]  Nigel Shadbolt,et al.  Use of the Critical Decision Method to Elicit Expert Knowledge: A Case Study in the Methodology of Cognitive Task Analysis , 1998, Hum. Factors.

[34]  Patric Andersson Does experience matter in lending? A process-tracing study on experienced loan officers' and novices' decision behavior , 2004 .

[35]  S. Epstein Integration of the cognitive and the psychodynamic unconscious. , 1994, The American psychologist.

[36]  Joseph P. Forgas,et al.  Affective Influences on Judgments and Behavior in Organizations: An Information Processing Perspective , 2001 .

[37]  J. Galegher,et al.  Dimensional and Categorical Attributations in Expert Parole Decisions , 1982 .

[38]  A. D. Jankowicz,et al.  Intuition in Small Business Lending Decisions , 1987 .

[39]  N. Schwarz Emotion, cognition, and decision making , 2000 .

[40]  Michael Wright,et al.  The Effect of Auditor Attestation and Tolerance for Ambiguity on Commercial Lending Decisions , 2000 .

[41]  A. D. D. Groot Thought and Choice in Chess , 1978 .

[42]  Jonathan A. Smith,et al.  Rethinking Methods in Psychology , 1995 .

[43]  P. Slovic,et al.  Affect and decision making: A hot topic , 2006 .

[44]  Gary Klein,et al.  Naturalistic Decision Making , 2008, Hum. Factors.

[45]  G. Soros The Crisis of Global Capitalism , 1998 .

[46]  Joel B. Cohen,et al.  Affect Monitoring and the Primacy of Feelings in Judgment , 2001 .

[47]  G. Klein,et al.  Intuition at Work: Why Developing Your Gut Instincts Will Make You Better at What You Do , 2002 .

[48]  Schema–Based Categorization in Personnel Decisions. , 1984 .

[49]  Melissa L. Finucane,et al.  Rational actors or rational fools: implications of the affect heuristic for behavioral economics , 2002 .

[50]  Paul J. Feltovich,et al.  The Cambridge handbook of expertise and expert performance , 2006 .

[51]  Roberta Calderwood,et al.  Critical decision method for eliciting knowledge , 1989, IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern..

[52]  T. Pearson,et al.  Direct comparison of the efficacy of intuitive and analytical cognition in expert judgment , 1987, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics.

[53]  J. Parikh,et al.  Intuition: The New Frontier of Management , 1994 .

[54]  E. Mishler Validation in Inquiry-Guided Research: The Role of Exemplars in Narrative Studies , 1990 .

[55]  Xueguang Zhou Organizational decision making: Organizational decision making as rule following , 1996 .

[56]  Caroline E. Zsambok,et al.  Characteristics of Skilled Option Generation in Chess , 1995 .

[57]  Raanan Lipshitz,et al.  Decision Making in Three Modes , 1994 .

[58]  J. Baron Judgment Misguided: Intuition and Error in Public Decision Making , 1998 .

[59]  Zur Shapira,et al.  Organizational decision making: Preference processing , 1996 .

[60]  Eric J. Walton,et al.  The executive mind , 1985 .

[61]  Gary Klein,et al.  Time Pressure, Skill, and Move Quality in Chess , 1988 .

[62]  Christopher K. Hsee,et al.  Risk as Feelings , 2001, Psychological bulletin.

[63]  F. Gobet,et al.  The Cambridge handbook of expertise and expert performance , 2006 .

[64]  K. Popper Unended Quest: An Intellectual Autobiography , 1976 .

[65]  Waymond Rodgers,et al.  The influences of conflicting information on novices and loan officers' actions , 1999 .

[66]  Stephen C. Harper,et al.  Intuition: What separates executives from managers , 1988 .

[67]  Waymond Rodgers,et al.  How do loan officers make their decisions about credit risks? A study of parallel distributed processing , 1991 .

[68]  Jennifer K. Phillips,et al.  Expertise in Judgment and Decision Making: A Case for Training Intuitive Decision Skills , 2008 .

[69]  Robert C. Blattberg,et al.  Database Models And Managerial Intuition: 50% Model + 50% Manager , 1990 .

[70]  S. Fiske,et al.  The Handbook of Social Psychology , 1935 .

[71]  N. Schwarz Feelings as information: Informational and motivational functions of affective states. , 1990 .

[72]  Melissa L. Finucane,et al.  Judgment and decision making: The dance of affect and reason. , 2003 .

[73]  G. Loewenstein Out of control: Visceral influences on behavior , 1996 .

[74]  Stewart Shapiro,et al.  Managerial intuition: A conceptual and operational framework , 1997 .

[75]  A M Hayashi,et al.  When to trust your gut. , 2001, Harvard business review.

[76]  Nigel Harvey,et al.  Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making , 2004 .

[77]  Eric Rosenberg,et al.  Quantitative Methods in Credit Management: A Survey , 1994, Oper. Res..

[78]  Sean A. Spence,et al.  Descartes' Error: Emotion, Reason and the Human Brain , 1995 .

[79]  E. Bonabeau Don't trust your gut. , 2003, Harvard business review.

[80]  Raanan Lipshitz,et al.  There Is More to Seeing Than Meets the Eyeball: The Art and Science of Observation , 2004 .

[81]  S. Sloman The empirical case for two systems of reasoning. , 1996 .

[82]  Waymond Rodgers,et al.  Integrating Credit Models Using Accounting Information With Loan Officers' Decision Processes , 1988 .

[83]  E. Sadler‐Smith,et al.  The Role of Intuition in Strategic Decision Making , 2009 .

[84]  Philip Beaulieu,et al.  Commercial Lenders' Use of Accounting Information in Interaction with Source Credibility* , 1994 .

[85]  S. Shu,et al.  The Connections Between Affect and Decision Making: Nine Resulting Phenomena , 2008 .

[86]  Eugene A. Imhoff,et al.  The use of accounting information in bank lending decisions , 1989 .

[87]  Norbert Schwarz,et al.  Judgment in a Social Context: Biases, Shortcomings, and the Logic of Conversation , 1994 .

[88]  Allen Newell,et al.  Human Problem Solving. , 1973 .

[89]  Jean C. Bedard,et al.  The Effects of Task Size and Similarity on the Decision Behavior of Bank Loan Officers , 1985 .

[90]  E. Higgins,et al.  Handbook of motivation and cognition : foundations of social behavior , 1991 .

[91]  L. Ross,et al.  Human Inference: Strategies and Shortcomings of Social Judgment. , 1981 .

[92]  H. Simon,et al.  Making Management Decisions: the Role of Intuition and Emotion , 1987 .

[93]  R. Holliday,et al.  Enhancing the recall of young, young–old and old–old adults with cognitive interviews , 2007 .

[94]  Hylton Boothroyd Image Theory: Decision Making in Personal and Organizational Contexts. , 1990 .

[95]  M. Fletcher Decision making by Scottish bank managers , 1995 .

[96]  D. Kahneman Maps of Bounded Rationality: Psychology for Behavioral Economics , 2003 .

[97]  Robert A. Olsen Professional Investors as Naturalistic Decision Makers: Evidence and Market Implications , 2002 .