Engineering quantification of inconsistent information

In this paper, the specification of fuzzy random quantities is considered for selected cases of problematic information as it appears frequently in engineering practice. The problem of inconsistency regarding uncertainty and imprecision is addressed. Quantification strategies are proposed for the following cases: (i) samples of small size (ii) samples with imprecise elements and (iii) samples obtained under inconsistent environmental conditions. Typical expert knowledge is included in the considerations. For solution, traditional statistical methods are combined with non-stochastic models for dealing with imprecision. Statistical uncertainty and imprecision are reflected separately in the quantification results. The entire range of possible stochastic models is covered and can be forwarded to a structural analysis and reliability assessment. This provides valuable information for subsequent decision-making. The risk of deriving wrong decisions due to biased or narrowed uncertainty quantification can be reduced significantly. The proposed quantification strategies are demonstrated by way of numerical examples.

[1]  Jon C. Helton,et al.  Sensitivity analysis in conjunction with evidence theory representations of epistemic uncertainty , 2006, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[2]  Pol D. Spanos,et al.  Computational Stochastic Mechanics , 2011 .

[3]  Robert L. Mullen,et al.  Formulation of Fuzzy Finite‐Element Methods for Solid Mechanics Problems , 1999 .

[4]  Masao Mukaidono,et al.  Interval and Paired Probabilities for Treating Uncertain Events , 1999 .

[5]  Kurt Weichselberger The theory of interval-probability as a unifying concept for uncertainty , 2000, Int. J. Approx. Reason..

[6]  Scott Ferson,et al.  Arithmetic with uncertain numbers: rigorous and (often) best possible answers , 2004, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[7]  Fulvio Tonon,et al.  Aggregation of evidence from random and fuzzy sets , 2004 .

[8]  R. Ghanem,et al.  Stochastic Finite Elements: A Spectral Approach , 1990 .

[9]  Miguel López-Díaz,et al.  Reversing the order of integration in iterated expectations of fuzzy random variables, and statistical applications , 1998 .

[10]  Dan A. Ralescu,et al.  Overview on the development of fuzzy random variables , 2006, Fuzzy Sets Syst..

[11]  Christiaan J. J. Paredis,et al.  Computational Methods for Decision Making Based on Imprecise Information , 2006 .

[12]  Pramod K. Varshney,et al.  A fuzzy modeling approach to decision fusion under uncertainty , 2000, Fuzzy Sets Syst..

[13]  Isaac Elishakoff,et al.  Whys and hows in uncertainty modelling : probability, fuzziness and anti-optimization , 1999 .

[14]  Yakov Ben-Haim,et al.  Uncertainty, probability and information-gaps , 2004, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[15]  Slavka Bodjanova A generalized histogram , 2000, Fuzzy Sets Syst..

[16]  Wolfgang Näther,et al.  Linear Regression with Random Fuzzy Variables: Extended Classical Estimates, Best Linear Estimates, Least Squares Estimates , 1998, Inf. Sci..

[17]  Huibert Kwakernaak,et al.  Fuzzy random variables--II. Algorithms and examples for the discrete case , 1979, Inf. Sci..

[18]  Eva Rubio,et al.  Random sets of probability measures in slope hydrology and stability analysis , 2004 .

[19]  Jon C. Helton,et al.  Challenge Problems : Uncertainty in System Response Given Uncertain Parameters ( DRAFT : November 29 , 2001 ) , 2001 .

[20]  H. Zimmermann,et al.  Fuzzy Set Theory and Its Applications , 1993 .

[21]  Pedro Terán Probabilistic foundations for measurement modelling with fuzzy random variables , 2007, Fuzzy Sets Syst..

[22]  Luis J. Rodríguez-Muñiz,et al.  Solving influence diagrams with fuzzy chance and value nodes , 2004, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[23]  P. Walley Statistical Reasoning with Imprecise Probabilities , 1990 .

[24]  Hans-Jürgen Zimmermann,et al.  Fuzzy Set Theory - and Its Applications , 1985 .

[25]  Huibert Kwakernaak,et al.  Fuzzy random variables - I. definitions and theorems , 1978, Inf. Sci..

[26]  Wolfgang Näther,et al.  Regression with fuzzy random data , 2006, Comput. Stat. Data Anal..

[27]  Christian A. Schenk,et al.  Uncertainty assessment of large finite element systems , 2005 .

[28]  Wolfgang Näther,et al.  On the variance of random fuzzy variables , 2002 .

[29]  Michael Beer Fuzzy Probability Theory , 2009, Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science.

[30]  Vladik Kreinovich,et al.  A new Cauchy-based black-box technique for uncertainty in risk analysis , 2004, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[31]  Phil Diamond,et al.  Least squares fitting of compact set-valued data , 1990 .

[32]  David I Blockley,et al.  The vulnerability of structures to unforeseen events , 2008 .

[33]  Jon C. Helton,et al.  Sensitivity Analysis of Model Output: SAMO 2004 , 2006, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[34]  Wim Desmet,et al.  Application of fuzzy numerical techniques for product performance analysis in the conceptual and preliminary design stage , 2008 .

[35]  Ramana V. Grandhi,et al.  Reliability-based Structural Design , 2006 .

[36]  Igor Kozine,et al.  Imprecise reliabilities: experiences and advances , 2000, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[37]  Efstratios Nikolaidis,et al.  Engineering Design Reliability Handbook , 2004 .

[38]  George J. Klir,et al.  Fuzzy sets, uncertainty and information , 1988 .

[39]  George J. Klir,et al.  Fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic - theory and applications , 1995 .

[40]  M. Beer,et al.  Fuzzy Randomness: Uncertainty in Civil Engineering and Computational Mechanics , 2004 .

[41]  Reinhard Viertl,et al.  Statistical Methods for Non-Precise Data , 1996, International Encyclopedia of Statistical Science.

[42]  Marc A. Maes,et al.  Bayesian framework for managing preferences in decision-making , 2006, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[43]  T. Ross Fuzzy Logic with Engineering Applications , 1994 .

[44]  Thomas Augustin Optimal decisions under complex uncertainty – basic notions and a general algorithm for data‐based decision making with partial prior knowledge described by interval probability , 2004 .

[45]  Siegfried Gottwald,et al.  Fuzzy Sets and Fuzzy Logic , 1993 .

[46]  Lev V. Utkin,et al.  An approach to combining unreliable pieces of evidence and their propagation in a system response analysis , 2004, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[47]  Jon C. Helton,et al.  Guest editorial: treatment of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in performance assessments for complex systems , 1996 .

[48]  R. Kruse,et al.  Statistics with vague data , 1987 .

[49]  Michael Beer,et al.  Designing robust structures - A nonlinear simulation based approach , 2008 .

[50]  Lotfi A. Zadeh,et al.  Fuzzy Sets , 1996, Inf. Control..

[51]  Jon C. Helton,et al.  An exploration of alternative approaches to the representation of uncertainty in model predictions , 2003, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[52]  Hans Bandemer Modelling uncertain data , 1992 .

[53]  Lev V. Utkin,et al.  An uncertainty model of structural reliability with imprecise parameters of probability distributions , 2004 .

[54]  Seyed Mahmoud Taheri,et al.  A Bayesian approach to fuzzy hypotheses testing , 2001, Fuzzy Sets Syst..

[55]  M. Beer,et al.  Engineering computation under uncertainty - Capabilities of non-traditional models , 2008 .

[56]  S. Gottwald,et al.  Fuzzy sets, fuzzy logic, fuzzy methods with applications , 1995 .

[57]  Hans Bandemer,et al.  Fuzzy Data Analysis , 1992 .

[58]  Hao Zhang,et al.  Interval Finite Elements as a Basis for Generalized Models of Uncertainty in Engineering Mechanics , 2007, Reliab. Comput..