Development of fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) based scenarios

In the present era characterized by uncertainty, innovation and change, increasing emphasis is being placed on the use of scenario planning techniques because of its usefulness in times of uncertainty and complexity. Scenario planning outlines the possible futures, stimulates strategic thinking about the future and helps to overcome thinking limitations by presenting multiple futures. Developing Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM) based scenarios is a very new approach recently proposed in the literature. FCM is based on causal cognitive map which is an accepted intuitive method. This approach combines the benefits of both qualitative and quantitative analysis. In this study FCM based scenarios are developed for the deployment of wind energy in a developing country to illustrate the usefulness of this approach. This study also describes the utilization of various tools proposed in the scenario planning literature to select and validate raw scenarios. Moreover a comparison of FCM based scenario development approach with other important techniques for developing quantitative scenarios is also presented.

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