Response of a Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Model to Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide: Sensitivity to the Rate of Increase

Abstract The influence of differing rates of increase of the atmospheric CO2 concentration on the climatic response is investigated using a coupled ocean–atmosphere model. Five transient integrations are performed each using a different constant exponential rate of CO2 increase ranging from 4% yr−1 to 0.25% yr−1. By the time of CO2 doubling, the surface air temperature response in all the transient integrations is locally more than 50% and globally more than 35% of the equilibrium response. The land–sea contrast in the warming, which is evident in the equilibrium results, is larger in all the transient experiments. The land–sea difference in the response increases with the rate of increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration. The thermohaline circulation (THC) weakens in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration in all the transient integrations, confirming earlier work. The results also indicate that the slower the rate of increase, the larger the weakening of the THC by the time of doubling. Two...

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