Epistemic conditions for iterated admissibility

Iterated admissibility (weak dominance) is a long-standing and attractive solution concept, making strong predictions in many games, e.g. the forward induction path in signalling games and the backward-induction path in perfect-information trees. Yet its logical basis has remained unclear. The difficulty appears to be this. The 'philosophy' behind iterated admissibility is that a player, Ann say, should consider everything possible; in particular, she should assign strictly positive probability to each of Bob's strategies. Now turn to Bob. If he assumes that Ann adheres to the foregoing 'philosophy,' then he should rule out the possibility that Ann will choose an inadmissible strategy, i.e., he should assign zero probability to these of Ann's strategies. But if Bob, like Ann, adheres to the everything-is-possible philosophy, he should give all of Ann's strategies positive probability. We seem to have reached some kind of contradiction.

[1]  Philip J. Reny,et al.  Rationality in Extensive-Form Games , 1992 .

[2]  Oliver Board,et al.  Algorithmic Characterization of Rationalizability in Extensive Form Games , 2003 .

[3]  Pierpaolo Battigalli,et al.  Strong Belief and Forward Induction Reasoning , 2002, J. Econ. Theory.

[4]  A. Kechris Classical descriptive set theory , 1987 .

[5]  M. Dufwenberg,et al.  Existence and Uniqueness of Maximal Reductions Under Iterated Strict Dominance , 2002 .

[6]  Robert Stalnaker,et al.  Belief revision in games: forward and backward induction 1 Thanks to the participants in the LOFT2 m , 1998 .

[7]  David Pearce Rationalizable Strategic Behavior and the Problem of Perfection , 1984 .

[8]  S. Zamir,et al.  Formulation of Bayesian analysis for games with incomplete information , 1985 .

[9]  Christian Ewerhart A Decision-Theoretic Characterization of Iterated Weak Dominance , 2001 .

[10]  R. Rosenthal Games of perfect information, predatory pricing and the chain-store paradox , 1981 .

[11]  Adam Brandenburger,et al.  The Relationship Between Rationality on the Matrix and the Tree∗ , 2003 .

[12]  K. Basu,et al.  On the non-existence of a rationality definition for extensive games , 1990 .

[13]  Joel Watson,et al.  Conditional Dominance, Rationalizability, and Game Forms , 1997 .

[14]  David M. Kreps,et al.  Signaling Games and Stable Equilibria , 1987 .

[15]  Elchanan Ben-Porath,et al.  Rationality, Nash Equilibrium and Backwards Induction in Perfect-Information Games , 1997 .

[16]  N. Dalkey EQUIVALENCE OF INFORMATION PATTERNS AND ESSENTIALLY DETERMINATE GAMES , 1952 .

[17]  Harborne W. Stuart,et al.  Common Belief of Rationality in the Finitely Repeated Prisoners' Dilemma , 1997 .

[18]  J. Mertens,et al.  ON THE STRATEGIC STABILITY OF EQUILIBRIA , 1986 .

[19]  Eddie Dekel,et al.  Hierarchies of Beliefs and Common Knowledge , 1993 .

[20]  Frank Schuhmacher,et al.  Proper rationalizability and backward induction , 1999, Int. J. Game Theory.

[21]  Marciano M. Siniscalchi,et al.  Hierarchies of Conditional Beliefs and Interactive Epistemology in Dynamic Games , 1999 .

[22]  Pierpaolo Battigalli,et al.  On Rationalizability in Extensive Games , 1997 .

[23]  Geir B. Asheim,et al.  Proper rationalizability in lexicographic beliefs , 2002, Int. J. Game Theory.

[24]  Eddie Dekel,et al.  Lexicographic Probabilities and Choice Under Uncertainty , 1991 .

[25]  R. Selten Reexamination of the perfectness concept for equilibrium points in extensive games , 1975, Classics in Game Theory.

[26]  E. Damme Stable equilibria and forward induction , 1989 .

[27]  Howard Raiffa,et al.  Games And Decisions , 1958 .

[28]  Joseph Y. Halpern Substantive Rationality and Backward Induction , 1998, Games Econ. Behav..

[29]  Tilman Börgers,et al.  Weak Dominance and Approximate Common Knowledge , 1994 .

[30]  P. Reny,et al.  On the Strategic Equivalence of Extensive Form Games , 1994 .

[31]  H. Shin Approximate common knowledge in a search model , 2000 .

[32]  D. Monderer,et al.  Approximating common knowledge with common beliefs , 1989 .

[33]  R. Aumann Backward induction and common knowledge of rationality , 1995 .

[34]  R. Aumann Survey of Repeated Games , 1981 .

[35]  Elchanan Ben-Porath,et al.  Signaling future actions and the potential for sacrifice , 1992 .

[36]  Geir B. Asheim,et al.  Admissibility and common belief , 2003, Games Econ. Behav..

[37]  Cristina Bicchieri Knowledge, belief, and strategic interaction: Knowledge-dependent games: Backward induction , 1992 .

[38]  T. Eisele,et al.  On solutions of Bayesian games , 1979 .

[39]  Pierpaolo Battigalli,et al.  Interactive Beliefs and Forward Induction , 1999 .

[40]  M Gilli,et al.  Iterated Admissibility as Solution Concept in Game Theory , 2002 .

[41]  Adam Brandenburger,et al.  Rationalizability and Correlated Equilibria , 1987 .

[42]  Eddie Dekel,et al.  Lexicographic Probabilities and Equilibrium Refinements , 1991 .

[43]  Cristina Bicchieri,et al.  Self-refuting theories of strategic interaction: A paradox of common knowledge , 1989 .

[44]  F. J. Anscombe,et al.  A Definition of Subjective Probability , 1963 .

[45]  Adam Brandenburger,et al.  Lexicographic probabilities and iterated admissibility , 1992 .

[46]  Dov Samet,et al.  Hypothetical Knowledge and Games with Perfect Information , 1996 .

[47]  Jeroen M. Swinkels,et al.  Order Independence for Iterated Weak Dominance , 1997, Games Econ. Behav..

[48]  T. Tan,et al.  The Bayesian foundations of solution concepts of games , 1988 .

[49]  D. Fudenberg,et al.  Rational Behavior with Payoff Uncertainty , 1990 .

[50]  Giacomo Bonanno,et al.  The Logic of Rational Play in Games of Perfect Information , 1991, Economics and Philosophy.

[51]  B. Bernheim Rationalizable Strategic Behavior , 1984 .

[52]  A. Heifetz The bayesian formulation of incomplete information — The non-compact case , 1993 .

[53]  Dale O. Stahl,et al.  Lexicographic rationalizability and iterated admissibility , 1995 .

[54]  Larry Samuelson,et al.  Dominated strategies and common knowledge , 1992 .

[55]  Ariel Rubinstein,et al.  A Course in Game Theory , 1995 .