Predicting Issue Dissemination and Arrival Pattern on Supply-Chain using Network Analysis

Abstract The increasing of supply-chain scale which caused by borderless business partnerships can result in less monitored chains, a condition in which predicting and detecting issues in supply-chain must be strengthened. Issues are resulted from gap between supply-chain business practices and stakeholders expectations, whether its come from related affairs or not. Issues which have any direct impacts on a supply-chain can bring risk and then cause a crisis if they are not managed by firms. This paper aims to investigate potential issues arrival patterns which disseminate through the nature of supply-chain as a network. Then, a framework also proposed to give an understanding on how to predict incoming issues before developing any prevention plans. The proposed patterns and framework are developed based on literature survey which is combined with several sample cases to build a comprehensive discussion. This paper concludes that issues can come through several patterns before they become direct risk and cause crisis in supply-chain. Before firms develop risk management or do any crisis prevention, they must transform themself based on the proposed framework to have an agile response of any small changes which have potential escalation into any other big and important risks. By looking at the limitations of previous approaches which tend to treat this topic only as business practices, this paper throws a light from academic perspective on how to develop sharp understanding about issues dissemination and arrival patterns on supply-chain.

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