The predicted focal spot size of the National Ignition Facility laser is parameterized against the finish quality of the optics in the system. Results are reported from simulations which include static optics aberrations, as well as pump-induced distortions, beam self-focusing, and the effect of an adaptive optic. The simulations do not include contributions from optics mounting errors, residual thermal noise in laser slabs from previous shots, air turbulence, a kinoform phase plate, or smoothing by spectral dispersion. Consequently, these results represent `first shot of the day', without-SSD, predictions.