Uncertainty Propagation of Internal Heat Gains for Building Thermal Behaviour Assessment: Influence of Spatial Distribution

In building simulation, internal heat gains correspond to heat production by human metabolism or electrical devices use. It is one of the most uncertain model inputs and could have an important impact on building simulation results. This study proposes a method to investigate the influence of the internal heat gains uncertainties by separating the uncertainty on the internal heat gains of the entire building, the uncertainty on the spatial distribution and its evolution on time. The uncertainty sources are propagated independently in a dynamic thermal simulation (DTS). The temperature of each zone at each moment is analyzed. In order to simplify this study, the most representing temperatures are selected with a method based on cumulative variances and a clustering algorithm. This approach is applied on an office building in France. The data coming from a one year monitoring period, provide information to reduce the uncertainties about the real internal heat gains. The results indicate that the effects of the internal heat gains uncertainties are time dependent. They also depend on the heating scenario of the thermal zone (heated or not-heated). At last, the temperatures are mainly influenced by the uncertainty on the internal heat gains of the entire building.

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