The Determinants of Crime in Tucson, Arizona1

This paper examines the geography of violent crime across the neighborhoods of Tucson and South Tucson, Arizona. The research is informed by the tenets of modern social disorganization theory, which has a strong ecological or environmental basis. Three different crime indices are computed; each represents an annual average during the five-year period 1995-1999. The most comprehensive index captures aggravated assaults, homicides, robberies, and sexual assaults. After providing a factor-ecological study of the study area, using 27 variables taken from the 1990 census, various regression models are developed to explain violent crime patterns. These models use a smaller array of ten demographic, economic, and social attributes to predict patterns at the block group level. A number of variables are found to be significant across all models, thereby providing further support for social disorganization theory. Stability in the signs and values of the estimates suggest that a general model of violent crime can be established for the study region. The paper closes with a short discussion of some public policy implications.