Prognostic Value and Relation with Adjuvant Treatment Duration of ctDNA in Stage III Colon Cancer: a Post Hoc Analysis of the PRODIGE-GERCOR IDEA-France Trial

Purpose: Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) has been suggested as a major prognostic factor in resected stage-III colon cancer. We analyzed ctDNA of patients randomized in the phase III IDEA-France trial. Experimental Design: ctDNA was tested for WIF1 and NPY by droplet digital PCR with method developed and validated for colorectal cancer. Disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were analyzed via multivariable analysis in patients with ctDNA samples and in sub-groups according to treatment duration (3/6 months) and disease stage (high/low-risk stage III). Results: Of 2,010 randomized patients, 1,345 had available ctDNA samples (1,017 collected both post-surgery and pre-chemotherapy). More Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG PS) of 0 (78% versus 69%) and T4 and/or N2 (40% versus 36%) were observed in patients studied (n = 1017) versus not analyzed (n = 993). There were 877 ctDNA-negative (86.2%) and 140 ctDNA-positive (13.8%) patients; their baseline characteristics were similar. With a median follow-up of 6.6 years, the 3-year DFS rate was 66.39% for ctDNA-positive patients and 76.71% for ctDNA-negative patients (P = 0.015). ctDNA was confirmed as an independent prognostic marker for DFS (adjusted HR = 1.55, 95% CI 1.13–2.12, P = 0.006) and OS (HR = 1.65, 95% CI 1.12–2.43, P = 0.011). ctDNA was prognostic in patients treated for 3 months and with T4 and/or N2 tumors, but not in those treated for 6 months and with T1–3/N1 tumors. Conclusions: In this first ctDNA assessment of a large series of patients with stage III colon cancer enrolled in phase III trial, post-surgery ctDNA was found in 13.8% of them and was confirmed as an independent prognostic marker. See related commentary by Bent and Kopetz, p. 5449