A sensitivity analysis of a high resolution emission model under different emission scenarios over Madrid area

Emission models are a key module of the Air Quality Systems particularly in the care of modelling the pollutant air concentrations in urban areas. The necessity of detailed emission models is an essential requirement of having an accurate and sensitive Air Quality System to predict the air concentrations on detailed spatial and temporal distribution. Recently, the biogenic emissions have been incorporated in detailed emission models to take into account its influence on the VOC budget. Different emission scenarios are applied into an Air Quality Model (ANA) over Madrid Area. Anthropogenic and biogenic emissions are included in the 250x250 emission model. The Air Quality System takes into account a detailed resistance deposition approach for different pollutants, a LANDSAT satellite landuse classification, an Eulerian Transport Model and a complex detailed mesoscale non-hydrostatic model REMEST. The different emission scenarios are applied to June, 5-7, 1995 period after validating the emission model with observed concentrations at different urban stations. Results show that increase and decrease simulations produce decrease or increase values of ozone in function of the increase (or decrease) percentages and depending on the absolute values of ozone. The results suggest that important reductions on NO x and VOC's may lead to increments in ozone levels in urban areas. More important reductions in those emissions can lead to reductions in ozone levels. Important increases in those emissions lead to substantial reductions in ozone levels.