Age characteristics in a multidecadal Arctic sea ice simulation

[1] Results from adding a tracer for age of sea ice to a sophisticated sea ice model that is widely used for climate studies are presented. The consistent simulation of ice age, dynamics, and thermodynamics in the model shows explicitly that the loss of Arctic perennial ice has accelerated in the past three decades, as has been seen in satellite-derived observations. Our model shows that the September ice age average across the Northern Hemisphere varies from about 5 to 8 years, and the ice is much younger (about 2–3 years) in late winter because of the expansion of first-year ice. We find seasonal ice on average comprises about 5% of the total ice area in September, but as much as 1.34 × 106 km2 survives in some years. Our simulated ice age in the late 1980s and early 1990s declined markedly in agreement with other studies. After this period of decline, the ice age began to recover, but in the final years of the simulation very little young ice remains after the melt season, a strong indication that the age of the pack will again decline in the future as older ice classes fail to be replenished. The Arctic ice pack has fluctuated between older and younger ice types over the past 30 years, while ice area, thickness, and volume all declined over the same period, with an apparent acceleration in the last decade.

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