Multi-objective mean–variance–skewness model for generation portfolio allocation in electricity markets

Abstract This paper proposes an approach for generation portfolio allocation based on mean–variance–skewness (MVS) model which is an extension of the classical mean–variance (MV) portfolio theory, to deal with assets whose return distribution is non-normal. The MVS model allocates portfolios optimally by considering the maximization of both the expected return and skewness of portfolio return while simultaneously minimizing the risk. Since, it is competing and conflicting non-smooth multi-objective optimization problem, this paper employed a multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) based meta-heuristic technique to provide Pareto-optimal solution in a single simulation run. Using a case study of the PJM electricity market, the performance of the MVS portfolio theory based method and the classical MV method is compared. It has been found that the MVS portfolio theory based method can provide significantly better portfolios in the situation where non-normally distributed assets exist for trading.

[1]  Yixin Ni,et al.  Supplier Asset Allocation in a Pool-Based Electricity Market , 2007, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[2]  R. Masiello,et al.  Managing market risk in energy , 2003 .

[3]  M Reyes Sierra,et al.  Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimizers: A Survey of the State-of-the-Art , 2006 .

[4]  P. Samuelson The Fundamental Approximation Theorem of Portfolio Analysis in terms of Means, Variances and Higher Moments , 1970 .

[5]  C.A. Coello Coello,et al.  MOPSO: a proposal for multiple objective particle swarm optimization , 2002, Proceedings of the 2002 Congress on Evolutionary Computation. CEC'02 (Cat. No.02TH8600).

[6]  R. A. Collins The Economics of Electricity Hedging and a Proposed Modification for the Futures Contract for Electricity , 2002, IEEE Power Engineering Review.

[7]  F. Wu,et al.  Managing Price Risk in a Multimarket Environment , 2006, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[8]  Tsong-Yue Lai Portfolio selection with skewness: A multiple-objective approach , 1991 .

[9]  Zhao Yang Dong,et al.  Optimal portfolio selection for generators in the electricity market , 2008, 2008 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting - Conversion and Delivery of Electrical Energy in the 21st Century.

[10]  Chen-Ching Liu,et al.  Financial risk management in a competitive electricity market , 1999 .

[11]  Arun J. Prakash,et al.  Portfolio selection and skewness: Evidence from international stock markets , 1997 .

[12]  J. Lawarree,et al.  Hedging with Futures Contracts in a Deregulated Electricity Industry , 2002, IEEE Power Engineering Review.

[13]  Chen-Ching Liu,et al.  Risk assessment in energy trading , 2003 .

[14]  Singiresu S. Rao Engineering Optimization : Theory and Practice , 2010 .

[15]  S. Liu,et al.  Mean-variance-skewness model for portfolio selection with transaction costs , 2003, Int. J. Syst. Sci..

[16]  Prospero C. Naval,et al.  An effective use of crowding distance in multiobjective particle swarm optimization , 2005, GECCO '05.

[17]  F. Longstaff,et al.  Electricity Forward Prices: A High-Frequency Empirical Analysis , 2002 .

[18]  H. Outhred,et al.  Forward contracts for the operation of an electricity industry under spot pricing , 1990 .

[19]  A. Eydeland Energy and Power Risk Management , 2002 .

[20]  Kit Po Wong,et al.  Electricity market risk management using forward contracts with bilateral options , 2003 .

[21]  Felix F. Wu,et al.  Portfolio optimization in electricity markets , 2007 .

[22]  Riccardo Poli,et al.  Particle swarm optimization , 1995, Swarm Intelligence.

[23]  E. Ziegel Introduction to the Theory and Practice of Econometrics , 1989 .

[24]  Zuyi Li,et al.  Market Operations in Electric Power Systems : Forecasting, Scheduling, and Risk Management , 2002 .

[25]  John R. Wingender,et al.  Skewness Persistence in Common Stock Returns , 1986, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.

[26]  Chen-Ching Liu,et al.  Pricing flexible electricity contracts , 2000 .

[27]  W. J. Conover,et al.  Practical Nonparametric Statistics , 1972 .