Performance assessment of a wind turbine using SCADA based Gaussian Process model

Loss of wind turbine power production identified through performance assessment is a useful tool for effective condition monitoring of a wind turbine. Power curves describe the nonlinear relationship between power generation and hub height wind speed and play a significant role in analyzing the performance of a turbine. Performance assessment using nonparametric models is gaining popularity. A Gaussian Process is a nonlinear, non-parametric probabilistic approach widely used for fitting models and forecasting applications due to its flexibility and mathematical simplicity. Its applications extended to both classification and regression related problems. Despite promising results, Gaussian Process application in wind turbine condition monitoring is limited. In this paper, a model based on a Gaussian Process is constructed for assessing the performance of a turbine. Here, a reference power curve using SCADA datasets from a healthy turbine is developed using a Gaussian Process and then is compared with a power curve from an unhealthy turbine. Error due to yaw misalignment is a common issue with wind turbine which causes underperformance, hence it is used as case study to test and validate the algorithm effectiveness.

[1]  Andrew Kusiak,et al.  Analysis of wind turbine vibrations based on SCADA data , 2010 .

[2]  V. K. Sethi,et al.  Critical analysis of methods for mathematical modelling of wind turbines , 2011 .

[3]  Jian Yang,et al.  Wind direction prediction for yaw control of wind turbines , 2017 .

[4]  James F. Manwell,et al.  Condition monitoring and prognosis of utility scale wind turbines , 2006 .

[5]  Jin Zhou,et al.  Wind turbine gearbox forecast using Gaussian process model , 2014, The 26th Chinese Control and Decision Conference (2014 CCDC).

[6]  Daniela Thrän,et al.  Completion of wind turbine data sets for wind integration studies applying random forests and k-nearest neighbors , 2017 .

[7]  Paul Fleming,et al.  Rotor Speed Dependent Yaw Control of Wind Turbines Based on Empirical Data , 2012 .

[8]  Dahai Zhang,et al.  A data-driven approach for fault detection of offshore wind turbines using random forests , 2017, IECON 2017 - 43rd Annual Conference of the IEEE Industrial Electronics Society.

[9]  Geoffrey E. Hinton,et al.  Bayesian Learning for Neural Networks , 1995 .

[10]  Iraklis Lazakis,et al.  Sensitivity analysis of offshore wind farm operation and maintenance cost and availability , 2016 .

[11]  Rajesh Kumar Nema,et al.  A Critical Review on Wind Turbine Power Curve Modelling Techniques and Their Applications in Wind Based Energy Systems , 2016 .

[12]  Gregor Giebel,et al.  Short Term Wind Power Forecasting , 2012 .

[13]  David Infield,et al.  Using Gaussian process theory for wind turbine power curve analysis with emphasis on the confidence intervals , 2017, 2017 6th International Conference on Clean Electrical Power (ICCEP).

[14]  Mohammad Jafari Jozani,et al.  Wind Turbine Power Curve Modeling Using Advanced Parametric and Nonparametric Methods , 2014, IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy.

[15]  Jouni Hartikainen,et al.  Kalman filtering and smoothing solutions to temporal Gaussian process regression models , 2010, 2010 IEEE International Workshop on Machine Learning for Signal Processing.

[16]  Jason R. Marden,et al.  Wind plant power optimization through yaw control using a parametric model for wake effects—a CFD simulation study , 2016 .

[17]  Karl Stol,et al.  Predictive Yaw Control of a 5MW Wind Turbine Model , 2012 .

[18]  Kincho H. Law,et al.  A Bayesian optimization approach for wind farm power maximization , 2015, Smart Structures.

[19]  Meik Schlechtingen,et al.  Comparative analysis of neural network and regression based condition monitoring approaches for wind turbine fault detection , 2011 .

[20]  A. Immanuel Selvakumar,et al.  A comprehensive review on wind turbine power curve modeling techniques , 2014 .

[21]  Yue Wang,et al.  Supervisory control and data acquisition data-based non-linear state estimation technique for wind turbine gearbox condition monitoring , 2013 .

[22]  Xiaofeng Meng,et al.  Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting Using Gaussian Processes , 2013, IJCAI.

[23]  L. Dambrosio Data-based Fuzzy Logic Control Tenchnique Appied to a Wind System , 2017 .

[24]  Tadeusz Uhl,et al.  Condition monitoring and fault detection in wind turbines based on cointegration analysis of SCADA data , 2018 .

[25]  Kian Hsiang Low,et al.  Parallel Gaussian Process Regression with Low-Rank Covariance Matrix Approximations , 2013, UAI.

[26]  Carl E. Rasmussen,et al.  Gaussian processes for machine learning , 2005, Adaptive computation and machine learning.

[27]  Paul Fleming,et al.  Use of SCADA Data for Failure Detection in Wind Turbines , 2011 .

[28]  Q. Shi,et al.  Gaussian Process Latent Variable Models for , 2011 .

[29]  Alain Bensoussan,et al.  Confidence intervals for annual wind power production , 2014 .

[30]  Carl E. Rasmussen,et al.  Gaussian Process Training with Input Noise , 2011, NIPS.

[31]  Arno Solin,et al.  Spatio-Temporal Learning via Infinite-Dimensional Bayesian Filtering and Smoothing , 2013 .

[32]  J. G. Schepers IEA Annex XX: Dynamic Inflow effects at fast pitching steps on a wind turbine placed in the NASA-Ames wind tunnel. , 2007 .

[33]  J. Neyman Outline of a Theory of Statistical Estimation Based on the Classical Theory of Probability , 1937 .

[34]  S.D.J. McArthur,et al.  A Multi-Agent Fault Detection System for Wind Turbine Defect Recognition and Diagnosis , 2007, 2007 IEEE Lausanne Power Tech.

[35]  David Infield,et al.  Online wind turbine fault detection through automated SCADA data analysis , 2009 .

[36]  Jerzy Bieniek,et al.  Estimation of operational parameters of the counter-rotating wind turbine with artificial neural networks , 2017 .