ECONOMIC DISARTICULATION AND FERTILITY IN LESS DEVELOPED NATIONS

A large body of research and theory seeking to explain fertility levels in less developed nations has stressed the effects of economic development on family-level decision making. While clearly a major factor, economic development levels fail to explain much of the variation in fertility rates. Some researchers have attempted to remedy this shortcoming by taking into account cross-national variation in income distributions, on the grounds that this approach provides a more refined indication of the real social consequences of economic development. The present analysis extends this tradition of research by arguing that the degree of disarticulation provides a theoretically more powerful and empirically more accurate way to operationalize these hypothesized distributional effects on fertility levels. DETERMINANTS OF FERTILITY DECLINE The most significant determinants of fertility decline in less developed countries are relatively well understood. Several sets of variables, including child and infant mortality levels, rational cost-benefit calculations at the family level, and female status have been shown to affect fertility rates. All of these factors, in turn, are generally considered closely related to economic development and growth. The precise nature of this linkage, however, remains theoretically and empirically problematic. Although less developed nations generally have higher fertility levels than more developed nations, the correspondence is far from exact. Even a casual inspection of data for the world's one hundred or so less developed nations reveals numerous radical disparities between per capita product and total fertility. This article suggests that "disarticulation," a distorted mode of economic growth found in many less developed countries, can help to explain these disparities.